Carola Binder of Haverford College reviews “The Monetarists: The Making of the Chicago Monetary Tradition, 1927–1960” by George S. Tavlas. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Considers the emergence and development of the Chicago monetary tradition into what became known as monetarism, describing it as it was reflected in the works of a small group of University of Chicago economists who preserved the importance of the quantity theory of money and defended the free-market system.”

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on March 3, 2020, in response to COVID-19. On March 5 and 6, I surveyed over 500 consumers about their concerns about COVID-19, awareness of the Fed's announcement, and macroeconomic expectations. Most consumers were concerned about effects of COVID-19 on the economy, their health, and their personal finances. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. Greater concern is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic unemployment expectations. I informed respondents about the Fed's announcement, which led some consumers to become more optimistic about unemployment and revise inflation expectations downward.

Using daily consumer survey data, we analyze the transmission of gas prices to consumer beliefs and expectations about the economy. We exploit the high frequency and geographic disaggregation of our data set to facilitate identification. Consumer sentiment becomes more pessimistic with rising gas prices. This effect is strongest for consumers who lived through the recessionary oil crises in the 1970s, consistent with models of learning from personal experience. For younger respondents, the sensitivity of sentiment to gas prices is stronger for college-educated respondents. Sensitivity is also higher in states with greater gas expenditures per capita.