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Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond

Review of Economic Studies 2026
This paper investigates the importance of the age composition for pandemic policy design. To do so, it introduces an economic framework with age heterogeneity, individual choice, and incomplete information, emphasizing the value of testing. Calibrating the model to the US Covid-19 pandemic reveals an 80% reduction in the death toll due to voluntary actions and the lockdown implemented in the US. The optimal lockdown, however, is more stringent than what was implemented. Moreover, the social planner follows an asymmetric approach by locking down the young relatively more than the old. We highlight the role of testing in reducing deaths, lowering economic costs, and allowing for a less restrictive lockdown. A social planner would choose a faster ramp-up in testing capacity relative to what occurred in the US. We use the framework to provide insights into pandemics caused by different viruses (including the Spanish flu), and underline the influence of economic conditions on optimal policies.

An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Econometrica 2019 87(4), 1081-1113 open access
Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.

The Role of Marriage in Fighting HIV: A Quantitative Illustration for Malawi

American Economic Review 2017 107(5), 158-162 open access
How might policies that promote marriage and/or dissuade divorce help in the fight against HIV/AIDS? This question is addressed employing a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model, using Malawi as a case study. In the framework developed, individuals can choose between married and single life. A single person can select among abstinence and sex with or without a condom. The results suggest that marriage-friendly policies can help to abate HIV/AIDS. The policy predictions that obtain from general equilibrium analysis are compared with those that arise from simulated synthetic field experiments and epidemiological studies.

Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality

American Economic Review 2014 104(5), 348-353
Has there been an increase in positive assortative mating? Does assortative mating contribute to household income inequality? Data from the United States Census Bureau suggests there has been a rise in assortative mating. Additionally, assortative mating affects household income inequality. In particular, if matching in 2005 between husbands and wives had been random, instead of the pattern observed in the data, then the Gini coefficient would have fallen from the observed 0.43 to 0.34, so that income inequality would be smaller. Thus, assortative mating is important for income inequality. The high level of married female labor-force participation in 2005 is important for this result.