Results of research on whether changes in earnings can predict future stock returns are inconclusive. We add to this debate by using long-term data from 1871 to 2004 to examine the predictive power of changes in earnings in periods of intrinsic bubbles and in periods absent intrinsic bubbles. Our results show that accounting for bubbles is important in whether changes in earnings can predict future stock returns. In periods of no bubble, we find that changes in earnings Granger-cause future returns, whereas in periods of bubble, this Granger causality from changes in earnings to future returns cannot be found. We conclude that changes in earnings can predict future stock returns, but only in periods absent bubbles.

In recent years, credit rating agencies have faced increased regulatory pressure and investor criticism for their ratings’ lack of timeliness. This study investigates whether and how rating agencies respond to such pressure and criticism. We find that the rating agencies not only improve rating timeliness, but also increase rating accuracy and reduce rating volatility. Our findings support the criticism that, in the past, rating agencies did not avail themselves of the best rating methodologies/efforts possible. When their market power is threatened by the possibility of increased regulatory intervention and/or reputation concerns, rating agencies respond by improving their credit analysis.

An important issue that firms consider when designing convertible debt is to specify security features such as conversion ratio, maturity date and call period. Following Lewis et al. [Lewis, M., Rogalski, R., Seward, J., 2003. Industry conditions, growth opportunities and market reactions to convertible debt financing decisions. Journal of Banking and Finance 27, 153–181], we employ a single measure that simultaneously considers all of these features: the expected probability (measured at issue date) that the convertible will be converted to equity at maturity. We find that firms in countries with stronger shareholder rights issue convertible debt with a higher expected probability of converting to equity. The positive association between the expected probability of conversion and shareholder rights is less pronounced in firms for which ownership structures create potentially high managerial agency costs. Specifically, in countries with stronger shareholder rights, firms with higher separation of control rights and cash flow rights tend to issue convertibles with lower probability of conversion. Furthermore, we find that large non-management block ownership strengthens the likelihood of issuing convertible debt with higher probability of conversion in countries with stronger shareholder rights. In contrast, firms in countries with stronger creditor rights issue convertibles with lower probability of conversion. We also document that the negative association between creditor rights and probability of conversion is more pronounced in firms with higher separation of control rights and cash flow rights.