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Implicit government guarantees and credit ratings
Exploiting the first default of a state-owned enterprise (SOE) in China, we analyze the role of implicit government guarantees in credit ratings. We consider two causes of implicit government guarantees. First, we suggest a “too big to fail” effect by revealing positive associations between credit ratings and issuer size, number of employees and taxes paid. Second, we propose a “government link” effect by showing positive associations between credit ratings and an issuer's state ownership, indicators for SOEs and central SOEs. Importantly, after the first SOE default, both dimensions of implicit government guarantees are weakened when explaining credit rating variations. Extending to analyses of yield spreads, we find that debt pricing relies more on credit ratings after the default event, consistent with bond investors weighing credit ratings more with weakened beliefs in implicit government guarantees. Collectively, our study proposes two dimensions of implicit government guarantees in credit ratings and shows how the initial SOE default significantly changes the role of such guarantees in credit ratings.
Institutional investors’ cognitive constraints during initial public offerings
Using detailed bid prices from institutional investors for 474 IPOs in China from 2010 to 2012, we find that 62.07% of the bid prices cluster at integers. This phenomenon is more pronounced for IPO firms that are smaller or younger or that exhibit more volatile profitability. Furthermore, the percentage of integer bid prices decreases from 62.07% to 7.58% after a regulatory mandate that significantly reduces the valuation uncertainty of IPOs. Expecting a positive first-day return, institutional investors round the bid price upward to the nearest integer to increase their odds of share allocation. Consequently, the offer price increases and the post-issuance return decreases with the increasing fraction of integer bid prices. Overall, these results suggest that institutional investors, possibly constrained by cognitive resources, carry over heuristics to their bidding activities in IPOs.
State Controlling Shareholders and Payout Policy
We study the role of state controlling shareholders in corporate payout policy. The State Capital Operation Program in China requires parent central state-owned enterprises (CSOEs) to contribute part of their consolidated income to a new fiscal fund. We find that listed CSOEs, partially controlled by parent CSOEs, experience significant reductions in dividend payouts as the income-contribution ratio increases. The dividend reductions are concurrent with increases in intragroup resource transfers— listed CSOEs’ loans to, and commercial trades with, group peers. The program yields adverse consequences for listed CSOEs’ investment and employment, yet being mitigated by group-level dividend reductions.
Overprecise forecasts
Dividend Taxes, Investor Horizon, and Idiosyncratic Volatility
We examine whether dividend tax induced lock-in reduces idiosyncratic volatility. The 2012 Dividend Tax Reform in China tied individual investors' dividend tax to the length of their shareholding period, with short-term individual investors entering into higher tax brackets. We find that high dividend firms experience a reduction in idiosyncratic volatility, relative to low dividend firms, after the reform. The effect is more pronounced when high dividend firms have more retail investors and exhibit greater uncertainty. High dividend firms also experience a reduction in stock price crashes. Finally, with reduced trading by individual investors who are likely less informed, earnings announcements of high dividend firms trigger less trading volume during the event window post-reform, but enable more complete price reactions. We conclude that dividend tax induced lock-in, through discouraging short-term individual investors' trading, stabilizes the market and improves share price informativeness.
Foreign residency rights and corporate fraud
We examine whether Chinese firms whose controlling persons have foreign residency rights are more likely to engage in corporate fraud. We find a positive association between foreign residency rights and corporate fraud with causality likely going from the former to the latter. Such a finding is robust to an estimation of a bivariate probit model that incorporates undetected fraud. In the cross section, higher managerial ownership, greater analyst coverage and higher institutional holdings mitigate this association. The link, however, diminishes in more recent years after high-profile extraditions of businessmen and regulatory focus on foreign residency rights in the political sector. We conclude that a lower expected probability of getting caught and punished associated with executives with foreign residency rights induces corporate fraud.
Individual Investors’ Dividend Taxes and Corporate Payout Policies
The 2012 Dividend Tax Reform in China ties individual investors’ dividend tax rates to the length of their shareholding period. We find that firms facing a reduction (increase) in their individual investors’ dividend tax rates are more (less) likely to increase dividend payout. Such an effect is concentrated in firms where incentives of controlling shareholders and minority shareholders are aligned. Furthermore, investors respond to this tax law change by reducing trading activities before the cum-dividend day and successfully lower their dividend tax penalty. Overall, our evidence enhances the notion that individual investors’ tax profiles shape firms’ payout policies.
Does Information-Processing Cost Affect Firm-Specific Information Acquisition? Evidence from XBRL Adoption
We examine how information-processing cost affects investors’ acquisition of firm-specific information using a natural experiment resulting from a recent mandate requiring U.S. firms to adopt eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) when submitting filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). XBRL filings make financial data standardized, tagged, and machine readable. We find that XBRL adoption reduces firms’ stock return synchronicity. The reduction in synchronicity mainly applies to filings under the mandatory program as opposed to the voluntary program. Furthermore, such an effect is more pronounced for opaque and complex firms. Finally, we find that XBRL adoption also reduces price delay.