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Child’s Gender, Young Fathers’ Crime, and Spillover Effects in Criminal Behavior

Journal of Political Economy 2021 129(12), 3261-3301
Men who father their first child at a very young age are convicted of significantly fewer crimes in the first years after birth if the child is a son rather than a daughter. This leads to behavioral spillovers that reduce criminal convictions among other young men living in the same neighborhood, with the resulting crime multipliers affecting peers’ crime even after the primary impact on the focal individual has dissipated. Through social multipliers, prevention policies that target potential criminals at an early stage, therefore, lead to larger reductions in the cost of crime than suggested by primary effects alone.

Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2021 137(1), 267-328 open access
We investigate the wage, employment, and reallocation effects of the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany that affected 15% of all employees. Based on identification designs that exploit variation in exposure across individuals and local areas, we find that the minimum wage raised wages but did not lower employment. It also led to the reallocation of low-wage workers from smaller to larger, from lower- to higher-paying, and from less to more productive establishments. This worker upgrading accounts for up to 17% of the wage increase induced by the minimum wage. Moreover, at the regional level, average establishment quality increased in more affected areas in the years following the introduction of the minimum wage.