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Voluntary Disclosure in Asymmetric Contests
This article studies the incentives for interim voluntary disclosure of verifiable information in probabilistic all-pay contests with two-sided incomplete information. Private information may concern marginal cost, valuations, and ability. Our main result says that, if the contest is uniformly asymmetric, then full revelation is the unique perfect Bayesian equilibrium outcome. This is so because the weakest type of the underdog reveals her type in an attempt to moderate the favourite, while the strongest type of the favourite tries to discourage the underdog—so that the contest unravels. This strong-form disclosure principle is robust with respect to correlation, partitional evidence, randomized disclosures, sequential moves, and continuous type spaces. Moreover, the assumption of uniform asymmetry is not needed when incomplete information is one-sided. However, the principle may break down when type distributions are too similar, contestants possess commitment power, or information is unverifiable. In fact, cheap talk will always be ignored, even if mediated by a trustworthy third party.
Overbidding in fixed rate tenders: The role of exposure risk
The fixed rate tender is one of the main procedures used by central banks in the implementation of their monetary policies. While academic research has largely dismissed the procedure owing to its tendency to encourage overbidding, central banks such as the ECB and the Bank of England have continued using it. We investigate this apparent conflict by considering an auction-theoretic setting with private information about declining marginal valuations. Since overbidding entails exposure risk, an equilibrium may exist even if bids are costless and the intended volume is pre-announced. In fact, the allotment quota may be strictly below one with certainty. Also with adaptive expectations, overbidding need not escalate. However, the resulting allocation is typically inefficient. Empirical proxies of exposure risk are significant in both euro and sterling operations. Our findings have implications, in particular, for the potential reintroduction of pro rata allotment in the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem.
Imposing Choice on the Uninformed: The Case of Dynamic Currency Conversion
Over the course of the past two decades, it has become a common experience for consumers authorizing an international transaction via credit card to be invited to choose the currency in which they wish the transaction to be executed. While this choice, made feasible by a technology known as dynamic currency conversion (DCC), seems to foster competition, we argue that the opposite is the case. In fact, the unique pure-strategy equilibrium in a natural fee-setting game, with uninformed and possibly inattentive consumers, turns out to be highly asymmetric, entailing fees for the service provider that persistently exceed the monopoly level. Although losses in welfare may be substantial, a regulatory solution is unlikely to come about due to a global free-rider problem.