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Climate-change regulations: Bank lending and real effects

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 70, 101212
We analyze how capital requirements from environmental risk exposure affect bank lending to the corporate sector, and how these effects transmit to real economic activity and to greenhouse gas emissions. To do so, we exploit the introduction of a policy in Brazil that required banks to incorporate environmental risks in their capital assessments. Using comprehensive credit data, we find that the policy induces large banks to reallocate their lending away from exposed sectors. The credit contraction has no substantial impact on the real activity and greenhouse gas emissions of these sectors, as smaller banks expand their lending afterwards. However, the policy triggers a moderate labor reallocation from small firms (i.e., those with higher costs of switching lenders) and into large firms within environmentally exposed sectors.

Banking sector performance during the COVID-19 crisis

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 133, 106305 open access
This paper examines the impact of financial sector policy announcements on bank stocks around the world during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, we find that liquidity support, borrower assistance programs and monetary easing moderated the adverse impact from the crisis, but their impact varied considerably across banks and countries. By contrast, countercyclical prudential measures led to negative abnormal returns in bank stocks, suggesting that markets price the downside risks associated with these policies.

Labor Supply and Household Dynamics

American Economic Review 2014 104(5), 354-359
Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we provide evidence that to understand household decisions and evaluate policies designed to affect individual welfare, it is important to add an intertemporal dimension to the by-now standard static collective models of the household. Specifically, we document that the observed differences in labor supply by gender and marital status do not arise suddenly at the time of marriage, but rather emerge gradually over time. We then propose an intertemporal collective model that has the potential of explaining the observed patterns.

Market Power and the Transmission of Loan Subsidies

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2024 13(4), 931-965
We study a large-scale Brazilian loan subsidy program to expand long-term credit. The government subsidizes banks’ funding costs for lenders, who then allocate credit to firms at regulated interest rates below a maximum ceiling. We propose and test a mechanism allowing banks to circumvent the rate caps and capture part of the subsidy. We show that when issuing a subsidized loan, lenders with market power use a cross-product pricing strategy, whereby they increase the price of other products to the same client. Our results have important policy implications for the design and effectiveness of government interventions in credit markets.

The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach‐for‐Yield, and Real Effects

Journal of Finance 2019 74(1), 55-90
We identify the international credit channel by exploiting Mexican supervisory data sets and foreign monetary policy shocks in a country with a large presence of European and U.S. banks. A softening of foreign monetary policy expands credit supply of foreign banks (e.g., U.K. policy affects credit supply in Mexico via U.K. banks), inducing strong firm‐level real effects. Results support an international risk‐taking channel and spillovers of core countries’ monetary policies to emerging markets, both in the foreign monetary softening part (with higher credit and liquidity risk‐taking by foreign banks) and in the tightening part (with negative local firm‐level real effects).