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Market Structure and Competition among Retail Depository Institutions

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2007 89(1), 60-74 open access
We assess competition among retail depository institutions in 1,884 rural markets. We estimate an equilibrium market structure model that endogenizes the operating decisions of three types of depository institutions: multimarket banks, single-market banks, and thrift institutions. Observed market structures and a game-theoretic specification of entry behavior identify the parameters of an underlying profit function. We find strong evidence that product differentiation generates additional profits for retail depository institutions. These profits help to maintain smaller banks and thrifts, even as larger banks expand their operations. Consumers have more options, as more institutions can profitably operate as a result of product differentiation.

Earnings announcement premia and the limits to arbitrage

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2007 43(2-3), 153-180
We examine the factors underlying the presence of earnings announcement premia. We find that the premia persist beyond the sample period examined in prior studies (ending in 1988), although they decline in magnitude after 1988. Further, premia are lower on the expected than the actual earnings announcement dates. We document that increases in voluntary disclosures result in lower premia, despite the increase in return volatility over time. Finally, our evidence suggests that the premia are not completely eliminated because of the costs of arbitrage.

Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice

American Economic Review 2007 97(3), 745-788
We develop a structural econometric model to estimate risk preferences from data on deductible choices in auto insurance contracts. We account for adverse selection by modeling unobserved heterogeneity in both risk (claim rate) and risk aversion. We find large and skewed heterogeneity in risk attitudes. In addition, women are more risk averse than men, risk aversion exhibits a U-shape with respect to age, and proxies for income and wealth are positively associated with absolute risk aversion. Finally, unobserved heterogeneity in risk aversion is greater than that of risk, and, as we illustrate, has important implications for insurance pricing. (JEL D81, G22)

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

Journal of Finance 2007 62(5), 2061-2096 open access
ABSTRACT Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find that shorting demand is an important predictor of future stock returns: An increase in shorting demand leads to negative abnormal returns of 2.98% in the following month. Second, we show that our results are stronger in environments with less public information flow, suggesting that the shorting market is an important mechanism for private information revelation.