We propose an extensive-form solution concept, with players who neglect information from hypothetical events but make inferences from observed events. Our concept modifies cursed equilibrium (Eyster and Rabin 2005) and allows that players can be cursed about endogenous information. (JEL C73, D44, D71, D81, D83, D91)

We provide novel evidence suggestive of insider trading through concealed relationships identified using information from over 100,000 Facebook profiles and their 35 million friends. Focusing on connections between fund managers and firm officers, we demonstrate that hidden ties are linked to substantial abnormal returns averaging 135 basis points per month (exceeding 16% alpha annually, t -stat = 3.54) across the universe of mutual funds and public firms. These hidden ties emerge as the most powerful predictor of future stock returns among documented network characteristics, with predictive power increasing over time through the present day. The premium associated with such connections arises not from endogenous selection or familiarity bias; instead, fund managers exhibit specific timing ability in deciding when to hold (or avoid) stocks of firm officers linked through hidden ties. The value of trading information rises with the degree of concealment and is concentrated around earnings and M&A events. The premium is absent in index funds, where strategic stock selection and timing are infeasible. Our findings on the value of hidden ties remain robust across industries, investment styles, time periods, and firm types.

Abstract We find widespread evidence that firms avoid overtime payments by strategically assigning “managerial” titles. Exploiting the exemption threshold under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), we find managerial titles increase almost fivefold just above the overtime pay cutoff, including suspect listings, such as “Director of First Impressions” for a role equivalent to “Front-Desk Clerk.” Avoidance is higher when firms have more bargaining power and are financially constrained. It is also more common in occupations with volatile demand and unpredictable worker scheduling. Patterns align with litigation and Department of Labor enforcement. Firms avoid roughly 13.5% in compensation costs, hiring strategic “managers.”