13'1 rev . .:. Division of Agricultural Sciences UNIVERSITY OF~IFORNLA Working Paper No. 139 R.I>J:~ FUTURES MARKET EFFICIENCY IN THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX Gordon C. Rausser and Colin Carter GIANNINI FOUNDATION OF AGRICULTURAL. ECONOMICS L.IBRAIli'V iM· ( California Agric'u l tural ElqIeriment Station Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics March 1982

In 2000, a genetically modified corn variety called StarLink that was not approved for human consumption was discovered in the food-corn supply. To estimate the price impact of this event on the U.S. corn market, we develop the relative price of a substitute method. This method applies not only to the StarLink event but also to rare events in other markets. We find that the contamination led to a 6.8% discount in corn prices and that the suppression of prices lasted for at least a year.