This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine this effect in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia, Mexico's main cocaine supplier, increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the United States, with multiple cartels and with strong support for PAN (the incumbent party). Between 2006 and 2009 the decline in cocaine supply from Colombia could account for 10% to 14% of the increase in violence in Mexico.

Policies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is an particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine production in Colombia, offsetting almost 20 years and billions of dollars of U.S.-backed efforts to stop drug production and cartel action.

We use a novel dataset to estimate, for the first time in the literature, the effects of Ponzi schemes on the formal financial sector. DMG and DRFE, two Ponzi schemes that were shut down by the Colombian government in November 2008, had over half a million customers, who invested funds corresponding to 1.2% of Colombia's annual GDP. We find that pyramid costumers’ obtained more loans from the financial sector and their credit standings were better than those in the respective control groups while the schemes were operating. Afterwards, their loan stocks started to decrease and their ratings with the banking sector deteriorated. Prior to November 2008, deposits in the financial sector fell more in the municipalities more affected by the schemes.