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Institutional ownership and return predictability across economically unrelated stocks

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2017 31, 45-63 open access
We document strong weekly lead-lag return predictability across stocks from different industries with no customer-supplier linkages (economically unrelated stocks). Between 1980 and 2010, the industry-neutral long-short hedge portfolio earns an average of over 19 basis points per week. This predictability is related to common institutional ownership and is distinct from previously documented lead-lag effects. Common institutional ownership is a complementary rather than a substitute explanation for return predictability. Information linkages are enough to induce return predictability among stocks in the same industry, but economically unrelated stocks exhibit return predictability only when they have common institutional owners. Our findings suggest that institutional portfolio reallocations can induce return predictability among otherwise unrelated stocks.

Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(3), 592-613
This paper explores flow patterns in corporate bond mutual funds. We show that corporate bond funds exhibit a concave flow-to-performance relationship: their outflows are sensitive to bad performance more than their inflows are sensitive to good performance. Moreover, corporate bond funds tend to have greater sensitivity of outflows to bad performance when they have more illiquid assets and when the overall market illiquidity is high. These results point to the possibility of fragility in the fast-growing corporate bond market. The illiquidity of corporate bonds may generate a first-mover advantage among investors in corporate bond funds, amplifying their response to bad performance.