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Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending

Review of Finance 2022 26(4), 899-935 open access
We suggest that forward guidance, via publicly committing the central bank to future actions and creating associated expectations, fundamentally affects bank lending decisions independently of other forms of monetary policy. To test this hypothesis, we build a forward guidance measure based on the language used in the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and match this measure with syndicated loans. Our results show that expansionary forward guidance decreases corporate loan spreads and that this effect is stronger for well-capitalized banks lending to riskier firms. Forward guidance also affects nonprice lending terms, such as covenants, performance pricing provisions, and the loan syndicate structure. Additionally, banks tend to initiate new lending relationships with lower spreads after forward guidance issuance.

When It Rains It Drains: Psychological Distress and Household Net Worth

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 143, 106620 open access
This paper establishes a sizeable negative effect of poor mental health on individuals’ net worth. In a representative panel of U.S. households, we find that a one standard deviation (or four unit) increase in Kessler’s K6 psychological distress level decreases net worth by 13.2 percent and increases by 5 percent the baseline risk of being in deficit net worth, where levels of debt outstrip the value of assets. Survival analyses further show that psychological distress accelerates the entry into and prolongs the stay in deficit net worth states, as well as increasing the probability of re-entry into deficit. Using a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, we find that differences in level of savings, medical debt and labor income predominantly explain the lower net worth and higher likelihood of deficit net worth of individuals with high psychological distress. Our findings highlight the significant longer-term implications of mental health on the net worth of individuals.