Recently improved Swedish register data have made it possible to remedy many weaknesses of previous research on displaced workers. Using linked employer‐employee data, we identify all workers displaced in 1987, due to an establishment closure, and follow them over both a predisplacement period of 4 years and a postdisplacement period stretching until 1999. We find that the displaced workers suffer both earnings losses and worsened labor‐market position not only during a transitory period of adjustment but also in the longer run. These longer‐run effects seem to be driven by an increased sensitivity to subsequent macroeconomic shocks.

Measuring market discrimination is extremely difficult except in the increasingly rare case where physical output measures allow direct measurement of productivity.We illustrate this point with evidence on elections to offices of the American Economic Association.Using a new technique to infer the determinants of the chances of observing a particular outcome when there are K choices out of N possibilities, we find that female candidates have a much better than random chance of victory.This advantage can be interpreted either as reverse discrimination or as reflecting voters' beliefs that women are more productive than observationally identical men in this activity.If the former this finding could be explained by the behavior of an unchanging median voter whose gender preferences were not satisfied by the suppliers of candidates for office; but there was a clear structural change in voting behavior in the mid-1970s.The results suggest that it is not generally possible to claim that differences in rewards for different groups measure the extent of discrimination or even its direction.

We analyze data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 on high school completion, smoking, and obesity. First, we investigate whether GED recipients differ from other high school graduates in their smoking and obesity behaviors. Second, we explore whether the relationships between schooling and these health‐related behaviors are sensitive to controlling for background and ability measures. Third, we estimate instrumental variables models. Our results suggest that the returns to high school completion may include less smoking but the health returns to GED receipt are much smaller. We find little evidence that high school completion is associated with less obesity.

This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of dividend yields for U.S. aggregate stock returns.Following Miller and Modigliani, we construct a measure of the dividend yield that includes all cash flows to shareholders.We show that this alternative cash-flow yield has strong and stable predictive power for returns, and appears robust to a battery of tests that have been proposed in recent critiques of the predictability literature.

We illustrate problems of measuring discrimination using elections to AEA offices. With a new econometric technique, we find female candidates have a much better than random chance of victory. This advantage is either reverse discrimination or reflects beliefs that women are more productive. The former interpretation could be explained by an unchanging median voter whose preferences were not satisfied by suppliers of candidates; but there was a structural change in voting behavior in the mid-1970s. The results suggest it is generally impossible to claim differences in rewards, for different groups measure the extent of discrimination or even its direction.

This paper considers tests of the parameter on an endogenous variable in an instrumental variables regression model. The focus is on determining tests that have some optimal power properties. We start by considering a model with normally distributed errors and known error covariance matrix. We consider tests that are similar and satisfy a natural rotational invariance condition. We determine a two-sided power envelope for invariant similar tests. This allows us to assess and compare the power properties of tests such as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR), the Lagrange multiplier, and the Anderson-Rubin tests. We find that the CLR test is quite close to being uniformly most powerful invariant among a class of two-sided tests. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of dividend yields for U.S. aggregate stock returns. Following Miller and Modigliani, we construct a measure of the dividend yield that includes all cash flows to shareholders. We show that this alternative cash-flow yield has strong and stable predictive power for returns, and appears robust to a battery of tests that have been proposed in recent critiques of the predictability literature.

This paper extends prior work on the links between political patronage and capital structure in developing economies. Three proxies of political patronage are developed and applied to a group of Malaysian firms over a 10-year period. We find a positive and significant link between leverage and each of the three measures of political patronage. We also find evidence of an indirect link between political patronage and capital structure through firm size and profitability.