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Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: Comment

American Economic Review 2016
In this note I raise two questions regarding Fama's results. The first is whether similar tests based on an information set somewhat broader than the past history of consumer price inflation will support Fama's findings. The second is whether given Fama's data and model his results fully support his hypotheses. The answer to both questions is no if one accepts the accuracy of the data. During Fama's sample period, the current monthly rate of change of consumer prices, Ct, is significantly related to the three previous monthly rates of change of

The Effect of Tax-Favored Retirement Accounts on Capital Accumulation

American Economic Review 1998 88(4), 749-768
In this paper we develop an applied general equilibrium model to examine the effects of tax-favored retirement accounts on the capital stock. The results from our benchmark model indicate that a modest IRA contribution limit similar to that in effect during the early 1980's raises the steady-state capital stock by 6.18 percent; approximately 9 percent of IRA contributions constitutes incremental saving. Our results lend support to recent suggestions that retirement accounts with favorable tax treatment only for contributions above some base amount might provide more stimulus to saving than conventional IRAs.