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Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1994 76(1), 12
A number of studies have suggested a quantitatively important relationship between public-sector capital accumulation and private sector productivity, with the most compelling evidence derived from analyses of state-level data. Estimates herein of production functions that use standard techniques to control for unobserved, state-specific characteristics, however, reveal essentially no role for public-sector capital in affecting private sector productivity. Only estimates of state production functions that do not include such controls find substantial productivity impacts. This result reconciles existing econometric estimates with the findings of Hulten and Schwab based on growth accounting techniques, as such techniques effectively control for state-specific effects. Region-level estimates are essentially identical to those from state data, suggesting no quantitatively important spillover effects across states.

Financial Capital, Human Capital, and the Transition to Self‐Employment: Evidence from Intergenerational Links

Journal of Labor Economics 2000 18(2), 282-305
We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys to investigate the relative importance of family financial and human capital in the transition into self-employment. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of individual's own wealth and human capital and parental wealth and self-employment experience on the probability that an individual transits from wage-and-salary to self-employment. We find young men's own financial assets exert a statistically significant but quantitatively modest effect on the transition. In contrast, the parents' capital exerts a large influence. Parents' strongest effect runs, not through financial means, but rather through their own self-employment experience and business success.

Municipal Labor Demand in the Presence of Uncertainty: An Econometric Approach

Journal of Labor Economics 1991 9(3), 276-293
We specify a model of municipal labor demand when resource flows available to the municipality are uncertain. The model allows us to test the hypothesis that employment decisions are rational in the sense that they incorporate all available information at the time that the decisions are made. We find that, for our sample of communities, on the whole one cannot reject the hypothesis that labor demand is consistent with intertemporal utility maximization under uncertainty. However, small and large communities exhibit different behavior. The employment decisions of small communities are consistent with the model, while those of large communities are not.

Public Opinion and the Balanced Budget

American Economic Review 1983
While most Americans have long favored a balanced federal budget , not all do. This paper uses cross-sectional differences among respondents to two public opinion polls to try to discriminate among competing hypotheses about why Americans want the budget balanced. Logit models are fit to data from two different public opinion polls : a Gallup poll and a CBS/New York Times poll conducted , respectively, in March and April of 1980, a time when the proposed balanced budget amendment to the Constitution was very much in the news. In each case , a large majority favored a balanced budget requirement. However, they favor it for a smorgasbord of reasons and at unclear price. It appears that political affiliation, ideology and personal circumstances are far less important determinants of the choice than economic rationales.

Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data

Econometrica 1988 56(6), 1371
This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregressio n coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic relationships between wages an d hours worked in two samples of American males. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects and is estimated by applying instrumental variables to the quasi-differenced autoregressive equations. The empirical results suggest the absence of lagged hours in the wage forecasting equation. The results also show that lagged hours is important in the hours equation.

Sticking it Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints

Journal of Political Economy 1994 102(1), 53-75
The authors examine survival rates of entrepreneurial enterprises and their growth, conditional on surviving. Their focus is on whether liquidity constraints increase the likelihood of entrepreneurial failure. The empirical strategy is based on the following logic: If entrepreneurs cannot borrow to attain their profit-maximizing levels of capital, then entrepreneurs with substantial personal financial resources will be more successful than those without. The authors examine the behavior of a group of sole proprietors who received substantial inheritances. The results are consistent with the notion that liquidity constraints exert a noticeable influence on the viability of entrepreneurial enterprises.

Sticking it Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints

Journal of Political Economy 1994 102(1), 53-75
We examine why some individuals survive as entrepreneurs and others do not. In addition, we analyze the growth of entrepreneurial enterprises, conditional on surviving. Our focus is on the role of access to capital: To what extent do liquidity constraints increase the likelihood of entrepreneurial failure? The empirical strategy is based on the following logic: If entrepreneurs cannot borrow to attain their profit-maximizing levels of capital, then those entrepreneurs who have substantial personal financial resources will be more successful than those who do not. The data consist of the 1981 and 1985 federal individual income tax returns of a group of people who received inheritances. These data allow us to identify those individuals who were sole proprietors in 1981 and to determine the extent to which the decision to remain a sole proprietor was influenced by the magnitude of the inheritance-induced increase in liquidity. The results are consistent with the notion that liquidity constraints exert a noticeable influence on the viability of entrepreneurial enterprises. For example, a $150,000 inheritance increases the probability than an individual will continue as a sole proprietor by 1.3 percentage points, and if the enterprise survives, it receipts increase by almost 20 percent.

Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1984 66(3), 405
Modern empirical work on the choice between renting and owning focuses on the concept of the of housing, which integrates into a single measure the various components of housing costs. The standard approach implicitly assumes that households know the user cost of housing with certainty. However, the ex post user cost measure exhibits substantial variability over time, and it is highly unlikely that individuals believe themselves able to forecast these fluctuations with certainty. In this paper, we construct and estimate a model of the tenure choice that explicitly allows for the effects of uncertainty. The results suggest that previous work which ignored uncertainty may have overstated the effects of the income tax system upon the tenure choice.

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, and Small Business

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2001 83(1), 52-63 open access
Critics argue that the estate tax prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises to heirs because it is difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. Why don't owners purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities? We examine whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, ceteris paribus, business owners purchase more life insurance than do other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are less responsive to estate tax considerations, and they are less likely to have the wherewithal to meet estate tax liabilities out of liquid assets plus insurance.