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The role of information disclosure in financial intermediation with investment risk
We study how information disclosure affects financial intermediation when the payoff to the long-term investment is risky. The analysis is based on a business-cycle version of the bank run model wherein a bank provides risk sharing to demand depositors who experience unobservable shocks to their liquidity preferences. The bank pre-commits to the precision of an interim signal regarding the payoff to the long-term investment. We examine the impact of bank disclosure on optimal risk sharing achieved by run-proof, signal-contingent demand-deposit contracts. We show that for utility functions that display non-increasing absolute risk aversion, more informative disclosure improves the ex ante risk sharing provided by financial intermediation.
Does regulatory reform of cumulative voting promote a more balanced power distribution in the boardroom?
In the presence of dominant shareholders, it remains uncertain whether the introduction of cumulative voting (CV) in board elections can elevate board representation of non-controlling substantial shareholders and curb the expropriation of minority shareholders by dominant shareholders. With hand-collected director-level data, we conduct DID-style analysis of China's CV reform. We find that non-controlling substantial shareholders cooperated in voting to raise their board representation, and CV implementation curbed tunneling activities and enhanced firm value. The results are especially strong in a subsample of firms whose second largest shareholder has a sufficiently large ownership proportion to elect her/his favored candidates onto boards.
Connections between the Market Pricing of Accruals Quality and Accounting‐Based Anomalies*
We examine whether prior findings on the market pricing of accruals quality (AQ) can be attributed to other forms of accounting‐based anomalies. Using hedge portfolio analysis and cross‐sectional regressions, we find that the return predictive power of AQ overlaps with several other accounting signals. We also find that, similar to other accounting‐based anomalies, especially the accruals anomaly, the AQ pricing effect (i) is likely due to mispricing instead of risk pricing, (ii) is attenuated in recent years, and (iii) disappears among firms with cash flow forecasts or long‐term growth forecasts. Our findings highlight the importance of controlling for existing return predictive signals when evaluating the market pricing of AQ.
Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy
We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk‐averse lenders and lack of monetary policy commitment. A government without commitment chooses excessively countercyclical inflation ex post, which leads risk‐averse lenders to require a risk premium ex ante. This makes local currency debt too expensive from the government's perspective and thereby discourages the government from borrowing in its own currency.
Using a hidden Markov model to measure earnings quality
We propose and validate a new measure of earnings quality based on a hidden Markov model. This measure, termed earnings fidelity, captures how faithful earnings signals are in revealing the true economic state of the firm. We estimate the measure using a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accommodates cross-sectional heterogeneity. Earnings fidelity is positively associated with the forward earnings response coefficient. It significantly outperforms existing measures of quality in predicting two external indicators of low-quality accounting: restatements and Securities and Exchange Commission comment letters.