This paper presents finite‐sample efficiency bounds for the core econometric problem of estimation of linear regression coefficients. We show that the classical Gauss–Markov theorem can be restated omitting the unnatural restriction to linear estimators, without adding any extra conditions. Our results are lower bounds on the variances of unbiased estimators. These lower bounds correspond to the variances of the the least squares estimator and the generalized least squares estimator, depending on the assumption on the error covariances. These results show that we can drop the label “linear estimator” from the pedagogy of the Gauss–Markov theorem. Instead of referring to these estimators as BLUE, they can legitimately be called BUE (best unbiased estimators).

We test whether measures of influence on regulators affect stress test outcomes. The large trading banks—those most plausibly ‘Too Big to Fail’ – face the toughest tests. Supervisory stress tests have a greater effect on large trading banks’ portfolios; the large banks respond by making more conservative (initial) capital plans; and, despite their more conservative capital plans, the large banks still fail their tests more frequently than other banks. In contrast, while we find little evidence that political or regulatory connections affect the quantitative element of the stress tests, these connected banks do face less scrutiny under its qualitative dimension.

ABSTRACT This paper finds that the disclosure of supervisory actions by bank regulators is associated with changes in their enforcement behavior. Using a novel sample of enforcement decisions and orders (EDOs) and a change in the disclosure regime, we find that regulators issue more EDOs, intervene sooner, and rely more on publicly observable signals following the regime change. EDO documents become longer, more complex, and contain more boilerplate language. Our results also indicate that intervention happens sooner and more frequently in counties with higher news circulation, which suggests that regulators take into account the public perception of their actions. We evaluate potentially confounding factors, including the savings and loan (S&L) crisis and competition from thrifts, and find robust results. We also study bank outcomes and document that uninsured deposits decline at EDO banks in the disclosure regime, especially for those covered in the news. Finally, we observe that bank failure accelerates despite improvements in capital ratios and asset quality. Overall, our research provides new insights on the disclosure of regulatory actions.

Using political corruption conviction data from the U.S. Department of Justice, we examine the impact of local corruption on firms’ debt maturity structure while exploring both demand-side and supply-side explanations. Our results support the demand-side story and indicate that firms in high corruption areas utilize less short-term debt to mitigate liquidity and refinancing risks. Consistent with this, we find the effect is more pronounced among firms with smaller size, lower asset redeployability, and higher volatility. Our findings remain robust to the inclusion of an array of controls expected to influence debt maturity preferences as well as time, industry, and state fixed effects. Moreover, a seemingly unrelated regression approach, instrumental variables regression, propensity score matching, placebo analyses, and alternative corruption measures corroborate our findings. Altogether, our results indicate that firms alter their debt maturity choices in response to local corruption to limit refinancing risk and the uncertainty created by corrupt government officials.

Abstract We examine firm disclosure choice when information is received on a real-time, continuous basis. We use transaction-level credit and debit card sales for a sample of retail firms to construct a weekly measure of abnormal revenue for each firm. We validate the informativeness of this abnormal real-time revenue information, confirming its positive correlation with abnormal returns, unexpected revenue realizations, and management revenue forecast news. Using revenue forecasts, we find that firms are less likely to disclose abnormally negative news early in the quarter. As the quarter progresses, firms reduce their withholding of negative news. These results are consistent with impending earnings announcements disciplining managers to provide negative news. This pattern of initial withholding and then disclosure exists primarily in firms with high analyst coverage, high institutional ownership, or high litigation risk. Finally, we find increased insider stock sales in weeks with abnormally negative news and no firm disclosure. Overall, our study provides evidence of the informativeness of real-time information and manager discretion in its release.

This paper examines whether forward-looking disclosure requirements impact firm business patterns. We rely on the implementation of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review (CCAR) stress test on U.S. bank holding companies as our identification strategy. Using a regression discontinuity design to exploit the quasi-experimental properties of the regulation around the different bank-size policy thresholds, we document four key findings. First, stress testing reduces moral hazard by decreasing the ratio of risk-weighted assets to total assets. Second, the decrease in moral hazard is not at the expense of bank lending since reducing risk results in higher concentrations in lending as banks shift out of higher-risk assets. Third, stress test banks’ lower risk is perceived by investors and results in lower funding costs relative to non-stress test banks. Fourth, the increase in regulatory oversight and stricter capital and transparency requirements do not cause large banks to manipulate their bank size to avoid complying with the stress test requirements.

We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late 20th century. First, we cover the role of health in driving economic growth and well-being and discuss standard frameworks for assessing the economic burden of infectious diseases. Second, we sketch a general theoretical framework to evaluate the tradeoffs policymakers must consider when addressing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions.In so doing, we emphasize the dependence of economic consequences on (i) disease characteristics; (ii) inequalities among individuals in terms of susceptibility, preferences, and income; and (iii) cross-country heterogeneities in terms of their institutional and macroeconomic environments. Third, we study pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical policies aimed at mitigating and preventing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. Fourth, we discuss the health toll and economic impacts of five infectious diseases:HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, and COVID-19. Although major epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a staggering economic burden, early and targeted health and economic policy interventions can often mitigate both to a substantial degree.