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Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration

American Economic Review 2022 112(2), 369-408 open access
This paper shows that racial composition shocks during the Great Migration (1940–1970) reduced the gains from growing up in the northern United States for Black families and can explain 27 percent of the region’s racial upward mobility gap today. I identify northern Black share increases by interacting pre-1940 Black migrants’ location choices with predicted southern county out-migration. Locational changes, not negative selection of families, explain lower upward mobility, with persistent segregation and increased crime and policing as plausible mechanisms. The case of the Great Migration provides a more nuanced view of moving to opportunity when destination reactions are taken into account.

Minimum Wages and Racial Inequality*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2020 136(1), 169-228
The earnings difference between white and black workers fell dramatically in the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This article shows that the expansion of the minimum wage played a critical role in this decline. The 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act extended federal minimum wage coverage to agriculture, restaurants, nursing homes, and other services that were previously uncovered and where nearly a third of black workers were employed. We digitize over 1,000 hourly wage distributions from Bureau of Labor Statistics industry wage reports and use CPS microdata to investigate the effects of this reform on wages, employment, and racial inequality. Using a cross-industry difference-in-differences design, we show that earnings rose sharply for workers in the newly covered industries. The impact was nearly twice as large for black workers as for white workers. Within treated industries, the racial gap adjusted for observables fell from 25 log points prereform to 0 afterward. We can rule out significant disemployment effects for black workers. Using a bunching design, we find no aggregate effect of the reform on employment. The 1967 extension of the minimum wage can explain more than 20% of the reduction in the racial earnings and income gap during the civil rights era. Our findings shed new light on the dynamics of labor market inequality in the United States and suggest that minimum wage policy can play a critical role in reducing racial economic disparities.

Voluntary Minimum Wages: The Local Labor Market Effects of National Retailer Policies

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2025 140(3), 1901-1958
Low unionization rates, a falling real federal minimum wage, and outsourcing have hampered wage growth in the low-wage sector in the United States for several decades. In recent years (2014–2023), a number of large private retailers—including some of the largest employers in the United States—have opted to institute or raise company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) for their employees. We use anonymized payroll data from a large credit bureau and a major payroll provider to study the effects of these national retailer policies on adopting employers’ own wages and employment as well as their spillovers to other employers in shared local labor markets, variously defined. Using stacked event studies centered around multiple VMW events and a continuous treatment variable defined as the gap between local-area wages and the company minimum, we find that VMWs result in sizable wage increases and reductions in turnover at the companies that implement them. Turning to wages at other companies, we estimate small, often economically negligible, spillover effects across multiple measures of exposure to VMWs and numerous definitions of relevant competitors, including firms connected by worker flows. Together, the evidence points to little role for strategic interactions in the transmission of large retailers’ wage policies to other firms. Voluntary minimum wage policies have affected over 3 million jobs at adopting employers, yet their impact on the broader labor market is limited.

Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860–2020

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2024 139(2), 693-750
The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this article, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the past 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and convergence via income growth and savings has come to a halt.