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ESG Shocks in Global Supply Chains

Review of Financial Studies 2026
We show that U.S. firms cut imports by 31.8% when their international suppliers experience environmental and social (E&S) incidents. These trade cuts are larger for publicly listed U.S. importers facing high E&S investor pressure and lead to cross-country supplier reallocation, suggesting that E&S preferences in capital markets can be privately costly but have real effects for foreign suppliers. Larger trade cuts around the incident result in better supplier E&S performance in subsequent years and in the eventual resumption of trade. Our results highlight the role of investors in ensuring suppliers’ E&S compliance along global supply chains.

The Technical Default Spread

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(11), 3386-3430
We study the quantitative impact of lender control rights on corporate investment, asset prices, and the aggregate economy. We build a general equilibrium model in which the breaching of a loan covenant (technical default) entails a switch in investment control rights from borrowers to lenders. Lenders optimally choose low-risk projects, thus mitigating borrowers’ risk-taking incentives and lowering the cost of equity. This mechanism generates strong macroeconomic effects and mitigates the financial accelerator. Consistent with our model, proximity to technical default in the data is associated with 4.12% lower returns and lower exposure to systematic risk.

Meeting Targets in Competitive Product Markets

Journal of Finance 2024 79(4), 2845-2884 open access
We show that public banks face negative stock return jumps after missing their earnings per share (EPS) targets, and theoretically and quantitatively link these jumps to bunching behavior in the EPS surprise distribution. Bunching banks cut deposit rates to meet their targets, but do so at the expense of deposit outflows and franchise value losses. Local competitors, including private banks unexposed to capital market pressure, increase deposit rates, compensating depositors for switching. Our results provide new evidence that performance targeting incentives can affect consumer product prices, and suggest that competition may provide a check on public firms' targeting efforts.

Smokestacks and the Swamp

Review of Financial Studies 2026 open access
We examine whether politicians affect local firms’ industrial pollution, and whether such effects are transmitted through plant-level networks to affect pollution in other regions. We first document that close Democrat wins in U.S. congressional races are associated with lower emissions and higher abatement at the plant level, especially when politicians have strong pro-environmental preferences. We also find evidence of reallocation: firms shift emissions away from areas represented by Democrats. However, reallocation is imperfect: firm-level costs are higher and market-to-book ratios lower if firms’ representation is more Democratic. Lower pollution-related illnesses around plants in Democratic districts suggest pass-through effects on local communities.

A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(5), 2251-2275 open access
Population-wide increase in life expectancy is a source of aggregate risk. Longevity-linked securities are a natural instrument to reallocate that risk. This paper extends the standard Campbell–Viceira (2005) strategic asset allocation model by including a longevity-linked investment possibility. Model estimation, based on prices for standardized annuities publicly offered by U.S. insurance companies, shows that aggregate shocks to survival probabilities are predictors for long-term returns of the longevity-linked securities, and reveals an unexpected predictability pattern. Valuation of longevity risk premium confirms that longevity-linked securities offer inexpensive funding opportunities to asset managers.