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How are market preferences shaped? The case of sovereign debt of stressed euro-area countries

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 61, 106-116 open access
This paper reveals the underlying market preferences for sovereign debt of distressed euro area countries. We employ a generalised flexible market loss, as it nests both the linear and the non-linear form, as a function of the ‘basis’, the difference between sovereign bond spread and the Credit Default Swap. Our evidence shows that market preferences lean towards pessimism for some countries, in particular Greece. Those preferences do not remain stable over time as they shift further towards pessimism post the Greek bail out in spring 2010. As part of sensitivity analysis we apply a multivariate loss function to account for contagion effects in forming market preferences among different sovereign bonds. We also examine the impact of specific financial and fiscal governance factors on market preferences. Our results suggest that the market closely monitor fiscal fundamentals so as to shape preferences.

Performance and Merton-type default risk of listed banks in the EU: A panel VAR approach

Journal of Banking & Finance 2009 33(11), 2050-2061
This paper provides empirical evidence that sheds new light into the dynamic interactions between risk and efficiency, a highly debated issue. First, we estimate three alternative measures of bank performance, by employing a directional distance function framework, along with a cost frontier and a profit function. As a second step, we calculate a Merton-type bank default risk. Then, we employ a panel VAR analysis, which allows the examination of the underlying relationships between efficiency and risk without applying any a priori restrictions. Most evidence shows that the effect of a one standard deviation shock of the distance to default on inefficiency is negative and substantial. There is some evidence of a reverse causation. As part of a sensitivity analysis, we extent our study to investigate the relationship between efficiency and default risk for banks with different types of ownership structures and across financial systems with different levels of development.

What is the impact of bankrupt and restructured loans on Japanese bank efficiency?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 72, S187-S202 open access
The Japanese banking system provides a distinctive platform for the examination of the long-lasting effect of problem loans on efficiency. We measure technical efficiency by modifying a translog enhanced hyperbolic distance function with two undesirable outputs, identified as problem loans and problem other earning assets. Our unique database allows us to distinguish between bankrupt and restructured loans to investigate the underlying causality between these loans and efficiency. From the flexible panel vector autoregression specification, primary results reveal that bankrupt loans have a positive impact on efficiency related to the “moral hazard, skimping” hypothesis, with the causality originating from bankrupt loans. In contrast, findings for the relationship between restructured loans and efficiency support the “bad luck” hypothesis.

The performance of US equity mutual funds

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 52, 217-229 open access
The paper examines the performance of US no-load equity mutual funds. Fund performance is derived using stochastic frontier analysis for a flexible functional form. This analysis allows us to derive parametric estimates of efficiency scores for each fund in our sample for the first time in the literature. Our results indicate that US no-load equity funds display varying levels of efficiency over time but also depending on size and on investment style. Robustness analysis reaffirm the efficiency scores remain consistent across different selections of inputs and outputs as well as the underlying distribution of the return. Having estimated each fund’s efficiency in the sample we unveil their underlying dynamics, also with respect to risk and operational characteristics such as flows, assets, and Morningstar star ratings. Panel-VAR estimations reveal that the response of funds’ efficiency to a shock in risk is positive and substantial. Some evidence of reverse causality is also observed. Finally, we extend our analysis to investigate the relationship between funds performance and key covariates across subgroups defined by size.

Does labour regulation affect technical and allocative efficiency? Evidence from the banking industry

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 61, S84-S98 open access
In light of the ongoing restructuring of the European banking industry and the challenging macroeconomic environment, banks have increased their efforts to reduce operating costs. Yet, the institutional features that affect banks’ ability to adjust costs and in particular personnel expenses, which comprise a significant part of banks’ non-interest cost structure, have not been adequately studied. This paper investigates the effect of labour market institutions and regulations on bank performance in 15 European countries over the period 2005–2010, using the Fraser index for labour regulation and its disaggregated sub-components. We propose a novel methodology to measure performance, based on the seminal work of Kumbhakar and Tsionas (2005), which allows the estimation of technical and allocative efficiency and the examination of the effect of labour market regulations in a single stage. Results indicate the existence of a positive relationship between the liberalisation of EU labour markets and allocative efficiency, while the effect on technical efficiency appears to be negative, although not statistically significant. When looking at the disaggregated components of the labour index, we further confirm that different forces are at play.