ABSTRACT Based on prospect theory's value function, we predict how reference points adapt to influence individuals' tax evasion choices during and after experiencing temporary tax changes. Results from a multi-round experiment indicate reactions to temporary changes depend jointly on the direction of the change and expectations. Specifically, individuals experiencing a tax increase evade more while the increase is in effect. More interestingly, knowing, versus not knowing, a tax decrease is temporary prevents an increase in evasion after the temporary change expires, and may lead individuals to reduce evasion during the change. In a supplemental condition, we induce uncertainty by repeatedly extending a tax decrease. We find when uncertainty is introduced, both benefits of knowing the temporal nature of the decrease are lost. Overall results are consistent with individuals failing to adapt to a loss state and adapting quickly to a gain state unless they are certain the gain state is temporary.

ABSTRACT Governments implement wealth transfers with different policy goals and distribution methods. Prior research examines the timing (lump sum/periodic) of transfers but fails to simultaneously consider payment delivery method (standalone/combined with other income). Based on the behavioral life-cycle model, we predict payment timing influences how recipients spend government transfers, but that this effect is muted when the transfer payment is combined with other income. In contrast to prior research, our experimental findings provide theory-consistent results and suggest recipients of a periodic transfer spend more of the transfer than recipients of a lump sum transfer, but only when the transfer is standalone and not combined. Our findings help to explain theory-inconsistent results of prior research and extend the literature on the behavioral life-cycle model and mental budgeting. Moreover, our results suggest policymakers can intentionally structure the distribution of government transfers to encourage household spending or saving consistent with policy goals.