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Risk-adjusted discount rates and capital budgeting under uncertainty

Journal of Financial Economics 1977 5(1), 3-24
This paper is concerned with the valuation of multiperiod cash flows in a world where prices are determined according to the Sharpe-Lintner-Black model of capital market equilibrium. We find that the current market value of any future net cash flow is the current expected value of the flow discounted at risk-adjusted discount rates for each of the periods until the flow is realized. The discount rates are known and non-stochastic, but the rates for the different periods preceding the realization of a cash flow need not to be the same, and the rates relevant for a given period can differ across cash flows. The risk adjustments in the discount rates arise because of uncertainties about reassessments through time of the expected value of a flow and the relationships between these reassessments and the corresponding reassessments of the expected cash flows of all firms.

Asset returns and inflation

Journal of Financial Economics 1977 5(2), 115-146
We estimate the extent to which various assets were hedges against the expected and unexpected components of the inflation rate during the 1953–1971 period. We find that U.S. government bonds and bills were a complete hedge against expected inflation, and private residential real estate was a complete hedge against both expected and unexpected inflation. Labor income showed little short-term relationship with either expected or unexpected inflation. The most anomalous result is that common stock returns were negatively related to the expected component of the inflation rate, and probably also to the unexpected component.

Human capital and capital market equilibrium

Journal of Financial Economics 1977 4(1), 95-125
This paper finds that extending popular two-parameter models of capital market equilibrium to allow for the existence of non-marketable human capital does not provide better empirical descriptions of the expected return-risk relationship for marketable securities than those that come out of the simpler models. This conclusion arises from the fact that relationships between the return on human capital and the returns on various marketable assets are weak, so that the model that includes human capital leads to estimates of risk for marketable assets indistinguishable from those of the simpler models.