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Multiple equilibria and term structure models

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 32(3), 333-344
We show the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross term structure framework can allow a variety of alternative equilibrium solutions for discount bond prices. This is important since it allows us additional flexibility in developing models that capture the properties of the term structure. As an example, we solve for the value of a discount bond when the short-term rate is absorbed at zero. We compare the yields implied by this model to those implied by the original Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model. We also show that alternative equilibria can occur in other term structure models.

Dual Trading in Futures Markets.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 643-71
With dual trading, brokers trade both for their customers and for their own account. The authors study dual trading and find that customers who are less likely to be informed have higher expected profits with dual trading while customers who are more likely to be informed have higher expected profits without dual trading. They also examine the effects of frontrunning. The authors test the major empirical implications of their model. Consistent with the model, dual traders earn higher profits than nondual traders, and customers of dual-trading brokers do better than customers of nondual-trading brokers.

Finance in Continuous Time: A Primer.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(5), 2072
This brief primer is intended to provide the foundations for the study of more rigorous and lengthy texts. It is designed principally for the finance faculty which does not specialize in continuous time methods, PhD students in finance and finance professionals. Chapters cover: a paradigm for primary asset valuation; complications of the basic paradigm; the valuation of derivative securities; optimal decision strategies and valuation.

Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1259-82
The authors develop a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure. The factors are the short-term interest rate and the volatility of the short-term interest rate. The authors derive closed-form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model. The dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure. The authors also derive closed-form expressions for discount bond options. The authors use Hansen's generalized method of moments framework to test the cross-sectional restrictions imposed by the model. The tests support the two-factor model.

Dual Trading in Futures Markets

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 643
With dual trading, brokers trade both for their customers and for their own account. We study dual trading and find that customers who are less likely to be informed have higher expected profits with dual trading while customers who are more likely to be informed have higher expected profits without dual trading. We also examine the effects of frontrunning. We test the major empirical implications of our model. Consistent with the model, dual traders earn higher profits than non-dual traders, and customers of dual-trading brokers do better than customers of non-dual-trading brokers.

Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two‐Factor General Equilibrium Model

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1259-1282
ABSTRACT We develop a two‐factor general equilibrium model of the term structure. The factors are the short‐term interest rate and the volatility of the short‐term interest rate. We derive closed‐form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model. The dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure. We also derive closed‐form expressions for discount bond options. We use Hansen's generalized method of moments framework to test the cross‐sectional restrictions imposed by the model. The tests support the two‐factor model.

Dual Trading in Futures Markets

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 643-671
ABSTRACT With dual trading, brokers trade both for their customers and for their own account. We study dual trading and find that customers who are less likely to be informed have higher expected profits with dual trading while customers who are more likely to be informed have higher expected profits without dual trading. We also examine the effects of frontrunning. We test the major empirical implications of our model. Consistent with the model, dual traders earn higher profits than non‐dual traders, and customers of dual‐trading brokers do better than customers of non‐dual‐trading brokers.

Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1259
We develop a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure. The factors are the short-term interest rate and the volatility of the short-term interest rate. We derive closed-form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model. The dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure. We also derive closed-form expressions for discount bond options. We use Hansen's generalized method of moments framework to test the cross-sectional restrictions imposed by the model. The tests support the two-factor model.

An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate

Journal of Finance 1992 47(3), 1209 open access
We estimate and compare a variety of continuous-time models of the short-term riskless rate using the Generalized Method of Moments. We find that the most successful models in capturing the dynamics of the short-term interest rate are those that allow the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the riskless rate. A number of well-known models perform poorly in the comparisons because of their implicit restrictions on term structure volatility. We show that these results have important implications for the use of different term structure models in valuing interest rate contingent claims and in hedging interest rate risk.

An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short‐Term Interest Rate

Journal of Finance 1992 47(3), 1209-1227
ABSTRACT We estimate and compare a variety of continuous‐time models of the short‐term riskless rate using the Generalized Method of Moments. We find that the most successful models in capturing the dynamics of the short‐term interest rate are those that allow the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the riskless rate. A number of well‐known models perform poorly in the comparisons because of their implicit restrictions on term structure volatility. We show that these results have important implications for the use of different term structure models in valuing interest rate contingent claims and in hedging interest rate risk.