Using finite mixture models, we find that financial distress is related to realized return negatively (positively) for one (the other) latent group. The negative (positive) relation concentrates in firms with large negative (positive) realized return; the likelihood for a firm to be in the latent group with a positive relation is negatively related to its price-to-value ratio estimate and mispricing score, both of which measure relative mispricing. The mispricing-correction component of realized return is negative (positive) for overvalued (undervalued) firms and decreases (increases) with corrected overvaluation (undervaluation). Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that mispricing—undervaluation and overvaluation—is larger for firms with higher financial distress. Evident in our findings, an overall negative relation between financial distress and realized return is driven by the negative relation between financial distress and the mispricing-correction component for overvalued firms and, therefore, it is not at odds with the risk-reward paradigm. • The relation between distress and realized return is positive (negative) for undervalued (overvalued) firms. • The negative overall relation between distress and realized return does not contradict the risk-reward paradigm. • Zhuo (June) Cheng acknowledges financial support from Hong Kong SAR Research Grants Council, China (#15506018).

This paper studies the market microstructure implications of uninformed trading volume. We capture uninformed volume using spikes in retail trading triggered by weekly advertisements (ads) in the Wall Street Journal that are largely duplicates. We report three findings. First, consistent with a positive volume-volatility relation, stock price volatility amplifies on recurring ad days. Second, informed investors time liquidity to trade more aggressively on recurring ad days. Third, despite the increase in informed trading on such days, price impact is lower, yielding a negative volume–price impact relation. Collectively, the evidence supports the theoretical predictions of Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016).

This paper studies whether investor composition affects the sovereign debt market. We construct a data set of sovereign debt holdings by foreign and domestic bank, nonbank private and official investors for 101 countries across three decades. Compared with other investors, private nonbank investors absorb a disproportionate share of the debt supply, and their demand for emerging market debt is most price responsive. A counterfactual analysis of emerging market sovereigns shows a 10% increase in debt leads to a 5.8% yield increase but an outsized 8.4% increase without nonbank investors. We conclude that sovereigns are vulnerable to the loss of nonbanks.

Fractional trading (FT)—the ability to trade less than a whole share—removes barriers to high-priced stocks and facilitates entry by capital-constrained retail investors. We observe a surge of tiny trades, measured using off-exchange one-share trades, among high-priced stocks compared to low-priced stocks after FT is introduced to the U.S. equity markets. These tiny trades, when coordinated during attention-grabbing events, are forceful enough to exert large price pressure on high-priced stocks. Further evidence suggests that FT can even fuel meme-stock-like trading frenzies and bubbles in high-priced stocks, for which the feedback effect likely plays a role. (JEL G10, G12, G14, G18, G32, G41)

We examine whether the heterogeneity of expectations is associated with idiosyncratic variations in experience. Combining household survey data and administrative data from the Netherlands, we find that given market development, households’ expectations about house price changes vary with their individual experience. This association is related to the use of information conveyed by experience, which varies in terms of informativeness, recency, and household sophistication. Finally, we find that individual experience also explains how far house price expectations deviate from realized house prices and that it may affect household behavior. Our findings elucidate the role that individual experience plays in expectation formation.

Despite the significance of social networks in influencing firm behavior, research on their impact on corporate tax behavior is limited. In this paper, we construct social networks of CFOs from U.S. companies based on their employment history, education, and non-professional activities. We find that firms with more socially connected CFOs have lower effective tax rates (ETR) compared to firms with less socially connected CFOs. This effect is more pronounced when corporate governance is weaker and managers have higher incentives. Furthermore, a firm's ETR decreases as CFO centrality increases. We do not observe similar results regarding the connectedness of boards of directors. Additionally, firm pairs exhibit similar ETRs when their CFOs are socially connected, suggesting an exchange of tax-related information among CFOs through their social networks. We also find that the past ETRs of firms with central CFOs predict the ETRs of firms with non-central CFOs. This indicates that less socially connected CFOs tend to follow the tax planning strategies of their more socially connected counterparts. Overall, our findings indicate that more socially connected CFOs possess more relevant information and resources regarding tax planning, leading to the adoption of more aggressive tax strategies compared to their less socially connected counterparts.

The 2008 Apex Oil court decision reduced the circumstances under which specific environmental cleanup obligations were dischargeable in Chapter 11, potentially affecting the securities prices, credit conditions, and pollution practices of corporations not in Chapter 11. We discover that among financially stressed firms with those specific environmental liabilities, bond and stock prices dropped after Apex. Moreover, those firms (1) experienced a tightening of credit conditions (e.g., paying higher risk premia on debts and receiving lower bond ratings), (2) intensified pollution prevention activities, and (3) reduced the emissions of pollutants causing environmental damages no longer dischargeable in Chapter 11. These findings hold among firms nationwide, not only those within the jurisdiction of the Seventh Circuit court, which issued the Apex decision, suggesting that Apex had a nationwide impact.

The entry of High-Speed Railways (HSR) represents disruptive competition to airlines. Utilizing a unique dataset of all flights departing from Beijing to 113 domestic destinations in China since January 2009, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to examine the effects of HSR entry on on-time performance and to identify the channels. We document two main findings. First, the entry of HSR leads to significant reductions in the mean and variance of travel delays on the affected airline routes. Second, the reductions in departure delays and taxi-in times at the destination airports are identified as the main channels.

German long-term health insurance (GLTHI) represents the largest market for private long-term health insurance contracts in the world. We show that GLTHI’s contract design coincides with the optimal dynamic contract for individuals with constant lifetime income profiles. After estimating the key ingredients of a life-cycle model, we find that, under a variety of assumptions, GLTHI achieves welfare that is at most 4% lower than for the optimal contract. Relative to the gains of replacing short-term contracts with either of the two long-term contracts, this welfare gap is smallest when reclassification risk is high.