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Yield Spreads and the Corporate Bond Rollover Channel

Review of Finance 2020 24(2), 345-379
I show that the pricing of a bond liquidity shock depends on the current size of a firm’s bond rollover exposure. Using US corporate bond transactions data, I find that a market liquidity shock induces a larger yield spread increase among firms with nonzero rollover exposures. This effect is more pronounced for credit risky firms and increases in the size of the rollover exposure. Furthermore, I show that tests that do not control for the heterogeneity in firms’ rollover exposure policies provide biased estimates of the pricing impact of the rollover channel.

Inventory-Constrained Underwriters and Corporate Bond Offerings

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2022 12(3), 639-666 open access
We empirically study how inventory constraints of underwriters affect corporate bond offerings. Using underwriter-insurer-level transaction data, we find that a more constrained underwriter is more likely to place a bond and increases the allocation in the primary market to an insurer with a stronger preexisting relationship. The same underwriter is also more likely to buy back part of an allocation from the same insurer within 6 to 12 months after an offering. Overall, by “parking” inventory to relationship investors in the primary market, underwriters mitigate the effect of their inventory constraints on firms’ bond financing costs.

Firms save from bonds but not from loans

Journal of Corporate Finance 2025 93, 102781 open access
We empirically study the corporate propensity to save from bonds versus loans. Our findings indicate that firms save approximately 14 cents of every dollar borrowed through bonds, while they do not exhibit similar savings behavior with loans. Saving from bonds is pervasive over time, and in the cross-section pledgeability is a key driver of this behavior. Specifically, we find that lower asset tangibility and shorter asset maturities are linked to substantial increases in saving rates from bond borrowings. We show that our results align with a model that incorporates external financing frictions and costly default.

Over‐the‐Counter Market Frictions and Yield Spread Changes

Journal of Finance 2019 74(6), 3217-3257
We empirically study whether systematic over‐the‐counter (OTC) market frictions drive the large unexplained common factor in yield spread changes. Using transaction data on U.S. corporate bonds, we find that marketwide inventory, search, and bargaining frictions explain 23.4% of the variation in the common component. Systematic OTC frictions thus substantially improve the explanatory power of yield spread changes and account for one‐third of their total explained variation. Search and bargaining frictions combined explain more in the common dynamics of yield spread changes than inventory frictions. Our findings support the implications of leading theories of intermediation frictions in OTC markets.

Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns

Journal of Finance 2022 77(4), 2287-2329 open access
This paper presents empirical evidence that the maturity structure of financial leverage affects the cross‐section of equity returns. We find that short‐term leverage is associated with a positive premium, whereas long‐term leverage is not. The premium for short‐term compared to long‐term leverage reflects higher exposure of equity to systematic risk. To rationalize our findings, we show that the same patterns emerge in a model of debt rollover risk with endogenous leverage and debt maturity choice. Our results suggest that analyses of leverage effects in asset prices and corporate financial applications should account for the maturity structure of debt.

The determinants of recovery rates in the US corporate bond market

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 114(1), 155-177 open access
We examine recovery rates of defaulted bonds in the US corporate bond market, based on a complete set of traded prices and volumes. A study of the trading microstructure around various types of default events is provided. We document temporary price pressure with high trading volumes on the default day and the following 30 days, and low trading activity thereafter. Based on this analysis, we determine market-based recovery rates and quantify various liquidity measures. We study the relation between the recovery rates and these measures, considering additionally a comprehensive set of bond characteristics, firm fundamentals, and macroeconomic variables.