Motivated by the evidence that risk premia are large and countercyclical, this paper studies a tractable real business cycle model with a small risk of economic disaster, such as the Great Depression. An increase in disaster risk leads to a decline of employment, output, investment, stock prices, and interest rates, and an increase in the expected return on risky assets. The model matches well data on quantities, asset prices, and particularly the relations between quantities and prices, suggesting that variation in aggregate risk plays a significant role in some business cycles.

Twenty years ago, Thomas A. Rietz (1988) showed that infrequent, large drops in consumption make the theoretical equity premium large. Recent research has resurrected this ‘disaster’explanation of the equity premium puzzle. Robert J. Barro (2006) measures disasters during the XXth century, and …nds that they are frequent and large enough, and stock returns low enough relative

Intangible capital is an important factor of production in modern economies that is generally neglected in business cycle analyses. We demonstrate that intangible capital can have a substantial impact on business cycle dynamics, especially if the intangible is complementary with production capacity. We focus on customer capital: the capital embodied in the relationships a firm has with its customers. Introducing customer capital into a standard real business cycle model generates a volatile and countercyclical labor wedge, due to a mismeasured marginal product of labor. We also provide new evidence on cyclical variation in selling effort to discipline the exercise.

Using an annual panel of US states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real GDP, productivity, and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a “missing generation” of firms affects productivity persistently.

The relative size and inflexibility of labor expenses lead to a form of operating leverage, which we call labor leverage. We derive a set of conditions for the existence of labor leverage even when labor markets are frictionless. Our model provides theoretical support for the use of firm-level labor share as a measure of labor leverage. Using Compustat/CRSP and confidential Census data, we provide evidence for the existence and for the economic significance of labor leverage: high labor share firms have operating profits that are more sensitive to economic shocks and have higher expected returns.