We document that earnings acceleration, defined as the quarter-over-quarter change in earnings growth, has significant explanatory power for future excess returns. These excess returns are robust to a wide range of previously documented anomalies and a battery of risk controls. The future return predictability appears to be consistent with investors assuming a seasonal random walk model for quarterly earnings and missing predictable implications of earnings acceleration for future earnings growth. Finally, the excess returns from the basic earnings acceleration strategy can be enhanced further by focusing on profit firms, low earnings volatility firms and on specific patterns of earnings acceleration.

Insurance pricing is subject to stricter regulation in some states than others. This cross-sectional variation, coupled with the occurrence of staggered deregulation in several states, enables a powerful test of the political cost hypothesis that managers manipulate accruals to mitigate adverse effects of rate regulation. We show that insurers understate their loss reserve accruals in more regulated regimes, a finding that contrasts with most prior studies documenting expense-increasing accruals in regulatory pricing settings like utilities. We theorize and find evidence that regulator-enabled cartel-like collective rate making leads to premiums being higher than the competitive level. Our results are consistent with accounting manipulation being used to justify deviating from these high rates and showcase a role for accounting in cartel enforcement.