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Term structure linkages surrounding the Plaza and Louvre accords: Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components

Journal of Banking & Finance 2004 28(9), 2051-2075
Eurocurrency deposit rates for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are used to investigate term structure linkages over the 1979–85 and 1986–01 periods. A single common trend drives the term structure in each country, with 1-month rates generally having little or no influence in setting the long-term trend. Cointegration and common factor analyses based on the intracurrency common factors suggest weaker integration of economic fundamentals following the Plaza Accord in 1986. However, using a 10-year moving window to examine the 1986–01 period, similar tests show that integration increased between the 1986–95 and 1988–97 periods, but declined again by 1992–01.

Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1995 30(4), 563
Using synchronous transactions data for IBM from the New York, Pacific, and Midwest Stock Exchanges, we estimate an error correction model to investigate whether each of the exchanges is contributing to price discovery. Johansen's test yields two cointegrating vectors, which together verify the expected long-run equilibrium of equal prices across the three exchanges. Two error correction terms specified as the differences from IBM prices on the NYSE indicate that adjustments maintaining the long-run cointegration equilibrium take place on all three exchanges. That is, IBM prices on the NYSE adjust toward IBM prices on the Midwest and Pacific Exchanges, just as Midwest and Pacific prices adjust to the NYSE.