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Global private information in international equity markets☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2009 94(1), 18-46
This paper studies international equity markets when some investors have private information that is valuable for trading in many countries simultaneously. We use a dynamic model of equity trading to show that global private information helps explain US investors’ trading behavior and performance. In particular, the model predicts global return chasing (positive co-movement of US investors’ net purchases with returns in many countries) which we show to be present in the data. Return chasing in our model can be due to superior performance of US investors, not inferior knowledge or naive trend-following. We also show that trades due to private information are strongly correlated across countries. A common (global) factor accounts for about half their variation.

International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach

Review of Economic Studies 2007 74(1), 1-30
This paper considers the role of foreign investors in developed country equity markets. It presents a quantitative model of trading that is built around two new assumptions about investor sophistication: (i) both the foreign and domestic populations contain investors with superior information sets; and (ii) these knowledgeable investors have access to both public equity markets and private investment opportunities. The model delivers a unified explanation for three stylized facts about U.S. investors' international equity trades: (i) trading by U.S. investors occurs in waves of simultaneous buying and selling; (ii) U.S. investors build and unwind foreign equity positions gradually; and (iii) U.S. investors increase their market share in a country when stock prices there have recently been rising. The results suggest that heterogeneity within the foreign investor population is much more important than heterogeneity of investors across countries.