Received monetary theory supports the existence of a strong relationship between monetary activity and stock prices. Following the work of Friedman and Schwartz [8], relating money supply to aggregate economic activity, some researchers have examined the more specific connection between changes in the rate of growth of money supply and associated movements in stock prices (see [6], [10], [11], [14], [17], [18], [19], [20], [22], and [28]). These studies use a variety of monetary aggregate measures to functionally relate the level of stock market indices to contemporaneous and lagged monetary growth rates. In general, the findings indicate a direct relationship between money supply and stock returns.

In recent years, there have been a number of studies investigating the yield spread phenomena between new and seasoned bonds ([1], [2], [3], [4], [8], [10], [13]). This literature focuses upon two aspects of the equilibrium pricing of new versus seasoned bonds: (l) analysis of the microeconomic determinants of new issue/seasoned issue yield spreads such as specific differences in coupon rates, call features, maturity features, and the like; and (2) analysis of macroeconomic determinants of yield spreads such as economic growth, interest rate cycles, changing marginal tax rates, and the like.

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Rare is the economist who has made great contributions to the literature in not one but two fields. Gottfried Haberler is a member of that select group of scholars. His pioneering work in international economics is surveyed by Baldwin and Willett; this essay reviews his writings in the area of business cycles and the domestic macroeconomy. The inherent greatness of Prosperity and Depression, Haberler's outstanding work on the business cycle,1 can perhaps best be indicated in tabular form. Table I provides a history of the publication of the work as well as a summary of its contents. Haberler's goal was, first, to present and analyze-and reconcile wherever possible-the existing theories of the business cycle and, second, to derive from these theories a synthetic2 explanation of fluctuations of economic activity. Table II, which presents a summary of the scholarly book reviews of Prosperity and Depression, shows that the greatness of the work was understood from the moment it appeared in print. Haberler subjects every existing explanation of the business cycle-the monetary theory, overinvestment theories, underconsumption theories, psychological and error theories, cost-of-production theories, and even agricultural theories-to a searching analysis under the following scheme: theoretical foundation, explanation of the different phases of the cycle-upswing (prosperity), downswing (depression), and upper and lower turning points (crisis and revival, respectively)-reasons for recurrence and periodicity, and international aspects. Often, the international implications of the theory were not considered by the originators; they are developed by Haberler himself. Haberler shows that many theories explain only part of the cycle (for example, the crisis and downswing) or provide only an exogenous

Ronald H. Ketellapper, Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in the Simultaneous Equation Model with Errors in the Variables, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 4 (Nov., 1982), pp. 696-701

This paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations (RE) formulation of Lucas (1972) (19 73) that only unanticipated money matters. The trend stationary representation of secular real output of Lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by Nelson and Plosser (1980) to be consistent with U. S. historical data. The impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered. Attention is paid to possible mis-measurement of agents' ex ante -- anticipated money growth. It is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment. Contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth. Beyond this, it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary. Inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth.

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