A conventional contract is a contract that each side of a bargain expects the other side to insist on, because it is standard and customary under the circumstances. The author considers a process of convention formation in which agents expectations evolve through repeated interactions in a large-population setting. Agents choose best replies given their knowledge of the precedents, subject to some inertia and random error in their choice behavior. Over the long run, this adaptive learning process tends to select contracts that are efficient, and egalitarian in the sense that the payoffs are centrally located on the efficiency frontier of the payoff possibility set. When the payoffs form a convex, comprehensive bargaining set, the process selects the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution.

How do governments react to the accumulation of debt? Do they take corrective measures, or do they let the debt grow? Whereas standard time series tests cannot reject a unit root in the U. S. debt-GDP ratio, this paper provides evidence of corrective action: the U. S. primary surplus is an increasing function of the debt-GDP ratio. The debt-GDP ratio displays mean-reversion if one controls for war-time spending and for cyclical fluctuations. The positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt also shows that U. S. fiscal policy is satisfying an intertemporal budget constraint.

It is common to apply multipliers to both earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price‐earnings multiplier or a price‐to‐book multiplier typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine them into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that combine the valuations and shows that these weights vary over the difference between earnings and book value, doing so systematically over time. When earnings are small compared to book value, the weights are different from when earnings are large relative to book value, and they vary in a nonlinear way over the difference between the two. The weights also combine forecasts of future earnings, based on earnings and book value separately, into one composite forecast. The paper calculates a second set of weights to ascertain how the two numbers are combined to forecast one‐year‐ahead earnings and three‐years‐ahead earnings. The calculated weights are applied out of sample to ascertain their predictive ability against other benchmarks.

Using segment information from Compustat, we find that the investment by a segment of a diversified firm depends on the cash flow of the firm's other segments, but significantly less than it depends on its own cash flow. The investment by segments of highly diversified firms is less sensitive to their cash flow than the investment of comparable single-segment firms. The sensitivity of a segment's investment to the cash flow of other segments does not depend on whether its investment opportunities are better than those of the firm's other segments.