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Rethinking Production under Uncertainty

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2021 11(1), 1-59 open access
Conventional models of production under uncertainty specify that output is produced in fixed proportions across states of nature. I investigate a representation of technology that allows firms to transform output from one state to another. I allow the firm to choose the distribution of its random productivity from a convex set of such distributions described by a limit on a moment of productivity scaled by a natural productivity shock. The model produces a simple discount factor that is linked to productivity and that can be used to price a wide variety of assets, without regard to preferences. Received November 26, 2019; editorial decision May 23, 2020 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

The Night and Day of Amihud’s (2002) Liquidity Measure

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2021 11(2), 269-308
Amihud’s stock (il)liquidity measure averages daily ratios of the absolute close-to-close return to dollar volume, including overnight returns. Our modified measure uses open-to-close returns matching return and trading volume measurement windows. It is more strongly correlated with trading-cost measures (by 8%–37%) and better explains cross-sections of returns, doubling estimated liquidity premiums. Using nonsynchronous trading near close, we show overnight returns are primarily information driven: including them in Amihud’s proxy for price impacts of trading magnifies measurement error, understating liquidity premiums. Our modification helps wherever Amihud’s measure is required. Our measures are publicly available for 1964–2019 and can be updated. (JEL G12, G14) Received June 2, 2020; editorial decision September 11, 2020 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

Dividends versus Stock Repurchases and Long-Run Stock Returns under Heterogeneous Beliefs

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2021 10(3), 578-632
We analyze a firm’s choice between dividends and stock repurchases under heterogeneous beliefs. Firm insiders, owning a certain fraction of equity, choose between paying out cash available through a dividend payment or a stock repurchase, and simultaneously choose the scale of the firm’s project. Outsiders have heterogeneous beliefs about project success and may disagree with insiders. In equilibrium, the firm distributes value through dividends alone, through a repurchase alone, or through a combination of both. In some situations, the firm may raise external financing to fund its payout. We also develop results for long-run stock returns following dividends and repurchases. (JEL G32, G35) Received June 2, 2020; editorial decision November 3, 2020 by Editor Andrew Ellul.

Brand Equity, Earnings Management, and Financial Reporting Irregularities

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2021 10(2), 402-435
Owning valuable brands enhances the financial well-being of firms not only through increased revenues and profitability but also by mitigating agency problems, earnings management, and financial reporting irregularities. Firms with high brand equity are less likely to have income-inflating discretionary accruals, announce earnings restatements, or experience SEC investigations. Brand equity reduces the likelihood of manipulation through incentive and opportunity channels, which we capture in CEO characteristics and compensation, and corporate governance measures. Brand equity reduces the likelihood of financial reporting irregularities more for durable goods firms and firms with shorter-tenured CEOs, as the latter are most vulnerable to performance pressures. (JEL G31, G34, M31, M37, M41, M42) Received September 28, 2019; editorial decision May 27, 2020 by Editor Isil Erel.

Judge Effects, Case Characteristics, and Plea Bargaining

Journal of Labor Economics 2021 39(S2), S543-S574
A growing literature uses random assignment of cases to judges to examine criminal sentencing. To extend this line of work, we directly examine how judicial “harshness” varies with the seriousness of criminal conviction. Using a model that respects the mix of cases and the noise produced by small caseloads, we find that case severity is best viewed as an endogenous outcome of bargaining. We also find that harsher judges have a higher share of cases failing to reach a plea bargain, but perhaps surprisingly, there is little evidence that large jumps in expected incarceration lead to differential plea bargain outcomes.

Labor Market Quotas When Promotions Are Signals

Journal of Labor Economics 2021 39(2), 437-460
We analyze the consequences of labor market quotas for the wages of women in high-level positions. Labor market quotas create uncertainty about the reason a woman is promoted. Firms know whether they promoted female employees because of the quota or their ability; their competitors do not. A winner’s curse, reducing competition for women in high-level positions, results. This widens the gender pay gap for these women. Ex ante, women are better off without quotas. Next we investigate how quotas affect incentives for employers to learn women’s abilities to make better job assignment decisions. Then, under specific conditions women may benefit.

Minimum Wage and Real Wage Inequality: Evidence from Pass-Through to Retail Prices

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2021
This paper considers the impact of the minimum wage on both labor and product markets using detailed store-level scanner data. I provide empirical evidence that a 10% increase in the minimum wage raises grocery store prices by 0.6% to 0.8% and suggest that the minimum wage not only raises labor costs but also affects product demand, especially in poorer regions. This points to novel channels of heterogeneity in pass-through that have distributional consequences, with key implications for real wage inequality. I also find that price rigidity within retail chains ameliorates these effects, reducing the pass-through elasticity for retail prices by about 60%.

Mass Atrocities and Their Prevention

Journal of Economic Literature 2021 59(4), 1240-1292 open access
Counting conservatively, data show about 100 million mass atrocity-related deaths since 1900. A distinct empirical phenomenon, mass atrocities are events of enormous scale, severity, and brutality, occur in wartime and in peacetime, are geographically widespread, occur with surprising frequency, under various systems of governance, and can be long-lasting in their effects on economic and human development, wellbeing, and wealth, more so when nonfatal physical injuries and mental trauma also are considered. As such, mass atrocities are a major economic concern. Given the multidisciplinary nature of the subject matter, the pertinent conceptual, theoretical, and empirical literatures are voluminous and widely dispersed, and have not been synthesized before from an economics point of view. We address two gaps: a “mass atrocities gap” in the economics literature and an “economics gap” in mass atrocities scholarship. Our goals are, first, to survey and synthesize for economists a broad sweep of literatures on which to base further work in this field and, second, for both economists and noneconomists to learn how economic inquiry contributes to understanding the causes and conduct of mass atrocities and, possibly, to their mitigation and prevention. In drawing on standard, behavioral, identity, social network, and complex systems economics, we find that the big puzzles of the “how” and “why” of mass atrocities, and mass participation therein, are being well addressed. While new research on such topics will be valuable, work should also progress to develop improved prevention approaches.