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The information content of earnings and prices: A simultaneous equations approach

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1997 23(1), 53-81 open access
The price-earnings relation can be characterized as a system of simultaneous equations. Earnings and prices can behave as if they are both endogenously determined because they are jointly affected by information that is difficult to specify explicitly. Specification tests provide evidence that both earnings changes and price changes are endogenous. The price and earnings coefficients increase from OLS to joint estimation and, under a restrictive set of assumptions, provide increasingly similar estimates of the permanent component of earnings. The evidence is consistent with the contention that a portion of the single-equation bias can be mitigated via joint estimation.

A cross-exchange comparison of execution costs and information flow for NYSE-listed stocks

Journal of Financial Economics 1997 46(3), 293-319
We examine execution costs for trades in NYSE issues completed on the NYSE, the NASD dealer market, and the regional stock exchanges during 1994. We find that effective bid-ask spreads are only slightly smaller at the NYSE. However, realized bid-ask spreads, which measure market-making revenue net of losses to betterinformed traders but gross of inventory or order-processing costs, are lower on the NYSE by a factor of two to three. This differential is attributable to the successful ‘cream skimming’ of uninformed trades by off-NYSE market makers. These findings reinforce existing concerns about whether orders are routed so as to receive the best possible execution.

The importance of firm quotes and rapid executions: Evidence from the January 1994 SOES rules changes

Journal of Financial Economics 1997 45(1), 135-166 open access
Nasdaq's Small Order Execution System (SOES) allows orders to be submitted by computer, thereby assuring rapid execution at quoted prices. We examine trading in the 20 largest Nasdaq stocks around the time of a rule change that reduced the largest SOES trades from 1000 to 500 shares. We show that SOES trades contain information about short-term price movements and that SOES trading declined dramatically with the rule change. However, quoted and effective spreads were unaffected by the rule change.

In defense of defensive measures

Journal of Corporate Finance 1997 3(3), 277-297
We examine how measures that defend incumbent managers against replacement by rival managers affect the information generated in control contests and how this information is used in subsequent investment decisions. We show that commonly used defensive measures allow shareholders to make better investment decisions than they can make absent these measures. Consequently, the adoption of defensive measures can increase shareholders' wealth. We find that good managers are less defended than poor managers and that managers whose interests are closely aligned with those of shareholders (e.g., via options or bonus plans) are less defended and have more control over firm decisions than managers whose interests are not so well aligned with those of shareholders. We also show that the informational role of defensive measures depends on the relative uncertainty about the quality of both parties to a control contest, and relate the predictions to the empirical evidence in the literature.

The Law of Demand When Income Is Price Dependent

Econometrica 1997 65(6), 1421
This paper establishes a set of conditions for the uniqueness and stability of the equilibrium price in exchange and production economies. Building on the earlier work of J. M. Grandmont and W. Hildenbrand, it shows that increasing heterogeneity in preferences (in some well-defined sense) causes aggregate Engel curves to become increasingly linear. So sufficient dispersion, together with the assumption that preferences and endowments are independently distributed, leads to the aggregate excess demand function satisfying the law of demand. Uniqueness and stability of the equilibrium price follows.

The decline of takeovers and disciplinary managerial turnover

Journal of Financial Economics 1997 44(2), 205-228
We compare top management turnover in unacquired U.S. industrial companies during an active takeover market (1984–1988) and a less active takeover market (1989–1993). For firms in the lowest quartile of performance (measured by operating income scaled by assets). 33% experience complete turnover of the president, CEO, and board chair during the active takeover period and only 17% experience complete turnover during the less active period. Controlling for various determinants of management turnover, we provide evidence that turnover and performance are related only in the active takeover period, and conclude that takeover activity affects the intensity of managerial discipline.

The effects of taxes, regulation, earnings, and organizational form on life insurers' investment portfolio realizations

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1997 24(3), 337-361
We exploit a unique experimental setting within the life insurance industry to examine the effects of taxes, regulation, earnings, and organizational form on life insurers' investment portfolio realizations. A unique equity tax levied on mutual life insurers, as well as the statutory rate variation that occurred during our sample period, allow us to disentangle the effects of taxes from earnings or profitability. Consistent with some policymakers' claims, we find mutual insurers' capital gain realizations are affected by company-specific equity tax rate variation. In addition, we find capital regulation and earnings considerations affect both stocks' and mutuals' realizations.