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Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery: Comment

American Economic Review 2012 102(7), 3774-3777 open access
This comment highlights different ways of coding crisis episodes in Cerra and Saxena (2008) (CS). The comment shows that the coding used for civil war implies a misrepresentation of its impact. A correct coding of civil war reveals that the average civil war leads to a loss in output of 18 percent. This makes civil wars more devastating than all other crisis studied by CS.

Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

American Economic Review 2012 102(2), 810-833 open access
This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes. (JEL D74, R23, R31)