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Advisors and asset prices: A model of the origins of bubbles

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 89(2), 268-287 open access
We develop a model of asset price bubbles based on the communication process between advisors and investors. Advisors are well-intentioned and want to maximize the welfare of their advisees (like a parent treats a child). But only some advisors understand the new technology (the tech-savvies); others do not and can only make a downward-biased recommendation (the old-fogies). While smart investors recognize the heterogeneity in advisors, naive ones mistakenly take whatever is said at face value. Tech-savvies inflate their forecasts to signal that they are not old-fogies, since more accurate information about their type improves the welfare of investors in the future. A bubble arises for a wide range of parameters, and its size is maximized when there is a mix of smart and naive investors in the economy. Our model suggests an alternative source for stock over-valuation in addition to investor overreaction to news and sell-side bias.

Firms as buyers of last resort

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 88(1), 119-145
We develop a model to explore the asset pricing implications of firms being buyers of last resort for their own stocks. Those with more ability to repurchase shares when prices drop far below fundamental value (i.e., less financially constrained firms) should have lower short-horizon return variances (controlling for fundamental variance) than other firms. Using standard proxies for financing constraints such as past repurchases and firm age, we find strong support for this predicted relation. We also find that this relation is stronger in the U.S. after 1982 when regulatory reforms lowered the legal cost of conducting repurchases as well as in countries where share repurchases are legally easier to execute.