It is a major challenge for asset pricing models to generate a high equity premium and a low risk-free rate while imposing realistic consumption dynamics. To address this issue, our paper proposes a novel pricing channel: we allow for consumption drops that can spark an economic crisis. This new feature generates a large equity premium even if possible consumption drops are of moderate size. In turn, our model also matches the consumption data of 42 countries along several dimensions. In particular, our approach generates a realistic number of crises that have realistic durations and involve clustering of moderate consumption drops.

This paper provides a unifying framework for the modeling of various types of credit risks such as contagion effects. We argue that Markov chains can efficiently be used to tackle these problems. However, our approach is not limited to pricing problems with contagion. On the theoretical side, we derive pricing formulas for three building blocks that are generalizations of contingent claims studied in Lando (1998). These claims can be thought of as atoms forming the basis for all credit risk payments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, in general, all contingent claims exposed to credit risk satisfy a system of partial differential equations. This is the key result to calculate prices of credit risk claims explicitly and efficiently.

Pricing and hedging structured credit products poses major challenges to financial institutions. This paper puts several valuation approaches through a crucial test: How did these models perform in one of the worst periods of economic history, September 2008, when Lehman Brothers went under? Did they produce reasonable hedging strategies? We study several bottom-up and top-down credit portfolio models and compute the resulting delta hedging strategies using either index contracts or a portfolio of single-name CDS contracts as hedging instruments. We compute the profit-and-loss profiles and assess the performances of these hedging strategies. Among all 10 pricing models that we consider the Student-t copula model performs best. The dynamical generalized-Poisson loss model is the best top-down model, but this model class has in general problems to hedge equity tranches. Our major finding is however that single-name and index CDS contracts are not appropriate instruments to hedge CDO tranches.

We compare the durations (the percentage price sensitivity with respect to the default-free short rate) of corporate and Treasury bonds in the reduced-form, intensity-based credit risk modeling framework. In a frequently used intensity-based model for corporate bond valuation we provide an example showing that, given the parameter estimates found in empirical studies, the duration of a corporate coupon bond may very well be larger than the duration of a similar Treasury bond. This finding contrasts with conclusions of previous studies. In a general, intensity-based recovery of market value framework we provide a simple sufficient condition for when the duration of a corporate bond will be smaller than that of a similar Treasury bond. We also provide an upper bound on the duration of the corporate coupon bond.

We solve a rich life-cycle model of household decisions involving consumption of perishable goods and housing services, habit formation for housing consumption, stochastic labor income, stochastic house prices, home renting and owning, stock investments, and portfolio constraints. In line with empirical observations, the optimal decisions involve (i) stock investments that are low or zero for many young agents and then gradually increasing over life, (ii) an age- and wealth-dependent housing expenditure share, (iii) non-housing consumption being significantly more sensitive to wealth and income shocks than housing consumption, and (iv) non-housing consumption being hump-shaped over life.

This paper analyzes a household's optimal demand for a reverse mortgage. We study a rich life-cycle model that can explain the low demand for reverse mortgages as observed in US data. We find that the demand for reverse mortgages is particularly pronounced for cash-poor, house-rich retirees, and households with a strong bequest motive and low pension income. We analyze the optimal response of a household that is confronted with a health shock or financial disaster. If an agent suffers from an unexpected health shock, she reduces the risky portfolio share and is more likely to enter a reverse mortgage. If there is a large drop in the stock market, she keeps the risky portfolio share almost constant by buying additional shares of stock. Furthermore, the probability to take out a reverse mortgage is hardly affected unless her financial wealth is small.

It is a major challenge for asset pricing models to generate a high equity premium and a low risk-free rate while imposing realistic consumption dynamics. To address this issue, our paper proposes a novel pricing channel: we allow for consumption drops that can spark an economic crisis. This new feature generates a large equity premium even if possible consumption drops are of moderate size. In turn, our model also matches the consumption data of 42 countries along several dimensions. In particular, our approach generates a realistic number of crises that have realistic durations and involve clustering of moderate consumption drops.

This paper studies finite-horizon consumption-portfolio decisions with recursive utility. We show that the parameter seemingly representing the individual’s bequest preference in traditional recursive utility formulations is quantitatively and qualitatively misleading. The parameter value is uninformative about the optimal bequest which, in some cases, is even inversely related to the magnitude of the apparent bequest weight. We argue that the ratio between optimal bequest and the optimal consumption rate just before the terminal date is a much better representation of the strength of the bequest motive. Numerical examples illustrate the pitfalls using the traditional specification and clarifies how the bequest preference affects optimal decisions and the life-cycle patterns of consumption and wealth assuming constant investment opportunities or stochastic interest rates. We show that the typical utility representation for a unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution actually assumes a strong bequest preference.

In a calibrated consumption-portfolio model with stock, housing, and labor income predictability, we evaluate the welfare effects of predictability on life-cycle consumption-portfolio choice. We compare skilled investors who are able to take advantage of all sources of predictability with unskilled investors ignoring predictability. For an unskilled investor the certainty equivalent of wealth is 0.3–6.8% lower than for a skilled investor, depending on the market entry date. We also determine the effect of luck to enter the market at a favorable time. Across market entry dates, skilled but unlucky investors can lose up to 15.4% compared to unskilled but lucky investors.