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An analysis of VaR-based capital requirements

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2006 15(3), 362-394
We study the behavior of a financial institution subject to capital requirements based on self-reported VaR measures, as in the Basel Committee's Internal Models Approach. We view these capital requirements and the associated backtesting procedure as a mechanism designed to induce financial institutions to reveal the risk of their investments and to support this risk with adequate levels of capital. Accordingly, we consider the simultaneous choice of an optimal dynamic reporting and investment strategy. Overall, we find that VaR-based capital requirements can be very effective not only in curbing portfolio risk but also in inducing revelation of this risk.

The corporate purchase of property insurance: Chinese evidence

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2006 15(2), 165-196
Using a panel data set (1997–1999) for 235 publicly listed companies in the People's Republic of China (PRC), this study tests empirically whether the purchase of property insurance mitigates principal-agent (agency) incentive conflicts. In contrast to prior studies, we first estimate a probit insurance participation decision model and then a fixed-effects insurance volume decision model (with Heckman's sample selection correction) in order to shed light on the determinants of both property insurance participation and volume decisions. Our results suggest that a major motivation for the corporate purchase of insurance in China appears to be the mitigation of agency conflicts. Additionally, various ownerships seem to have different impacts on the corporate purchase of insurance in China. Moreover, the results show that the same factor can have different impacts on the insurance participation and volume decisions, and that binding financial conditions may be a key factor accounting for such observed differences.

Institutional ownership changes and returns around analysts’ earnings forecast release events: Evidence from Taiwan

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(9), 2471-2488
Traditional data sources do not have institutional holding data on a daily basis. Because of this, most prior empirical studies of institutional herding have focused on quarterly or annual data. The problem, however, with using quarterly or annual data on institutional holdings is that these data may not reveal institutional herding if it occurs over a shorter time interval. For this study, we make use of data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE). Unlike traditional data sources, the TSE provides daily institutional holdings information. The use of this detailed data allows us to make more interesting analysis and inferences. In this study, we examine the relationship between institutional ownership changes and returns localized around analysts’ earnings forecast release events. Analysis of institutional ownership and return data around the earnings release event allows us to investigate institutional herding and feedback behavior in a different level. Our major results are as follows: (1) there exists a relation between company specific attributes and institutional herding, (2) observed changes in institutional ownership and contemporaneous return are mainly the results of inter-day price impact of herding, (3) institutional investors show evidence of being informed traders in buying but not selling.

Do Technological Improvements in the Manufacturing Sector Raise or Lower Employment?

American Economic Review 2006 96(1), 352-368
We find that technology's effect on employment varies greatly across manufacturing industries. Some industries exhibit a temporary reduction in employment in response to a permanent increase in TFP, whereas many more industries exhibit an employment increase in response to a permanent TFP shock. This raises serious questions about existing work that finds a labor productivity shock has a strong negative effect on employment. There are tantalizing and interesting differences between TFP and labor productivity. We argue that TFP is a more natural measure of technology because labor productivity reflects shifts in the input mix as well as in technology.

Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles

Journal of Finance 2006 61(3), 1073-1117 open access
We model the relationship between asset float (tradeable shares) and speculative bubbles. Investors with heterogeneous beliefs and short‐sales constraints trade a stock with limited float because of insider lockups. A bubble arises as price overweighs optimists' beliefs and investors anticipate the option to resell to those with even higher valuations. The bubble's size depends on float as investors anticipate an increase in float with lockup expirations and speculate over the degree of insider selling. Consistent with the internet experience, the bubble, turnover, and volatility decrease with float and prices drop on the lockup expiration date.

Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?

Journal of Finance 2006 61(2), 725-762 open access
This paper uses pre‐offer market valuations to evaluate the misvaluation and Q theories of takeovers. Bidder and target valuations (price‐to‐book, or price‐to‐residual‐income‐model‐value) are related to means of payment, mode of acquisition, premia, target hostility, offer success, and bidder and target announcement‐period returns. The evidence is broadly consistent with both hypotheses. The evidence for the Q hypothesis is stronger in the pre‐1990 period than in the 1990–2000 period, whereas the evidence for the misvaluation hypothesis is stronger in the 1990–2000 period than in the pre‐1990 period.