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Structural Estimation of Higher Order Risk Preferences

Econometrica 2025 93(5), 1855-1883 open access
Structural measures of higher order risk attitudes have well‐developed foundations in Expected Utility Theory (EUT), but little is known about their empirical magnitudes. We introduce a novel experimental design and a companion econometric model that allows us to structurally estimate indices of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance under EUT without imposing restrictions on their interdependence. We find that indices of absolute risk aversion, prudence, and temperance exhibit distinct patterns of variation over income, and that predicted risk premia under EUT and Rank‐Dependent Utility Theory gradually converge as the order of risk increases. These findings are obscured by regular parametric utility functions, which inherently bias results toward prudence and temperance when subjects are risk averse. The results remain robust in subsamples of moderate size, which suggests that our approach can be adopted in broader studies that link higher order risk attitudes to other domains of latent individual preferences and economic behavior.

Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection, and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020 102(3), 552-568 open access
We evaluate the temporal stability of risk preferences using a remarkable data set that combines sociodemographic information from the Danish Civil Registry with information on risk attitudes from a longitudinal field experiment. Our econometric model accounts for endogenous sample selection and attrition processes that may confound inferences about temporal stability. Our experimental design builds in randomization on the incentives for participation that facilitates empirical identification of the model. In general, we find evidence consistent with temporal stability after correcting for the effects of selection and attrition. When neglected, these effects change our inferences in an economically and statistically significant manner.