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Consumer sentiment inequality, relative performance of firms, and the market

Journal of Corporate Finance 2026 99, 103004 open access
This paper introduces Sentiment Inequality (SI)—the difference in sentiment between high- and low-income consumers—and demonstrates its predictive power for firm performance, asset prices, and market trends. Using the restaurant industry as a case study, we show that changes in SI predict the relative performance of high-end firms (casual dining restaurants) versus low-end firms (fast-food chains). These findings extend beyond the restaurant sector, revealing that SI predicts the relative performance of high- versus low-end firms across the entire market. SI emerges as a critical proxy for business cycle fluctuations, providing incremental informational value over aggregate sentiment measures and established predictors.