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Geographic diversification in banking

Journal of Financial Stability 2014 15, 172-181
In the aftermath of the 2007–2009 crisis, banks claiming positive diversification benefits are being met with skepticism. Nevertheless, diversification might be important and sizable for some large internationally active banking groups. We use a universally applicable correlation matrix approach to calculate international diversification effects, in which bank subsidiaries are treated as individual assets of the banking group portfolio. We apply the framework to 49 of the world's largest banking groups with significant foreign business units over the 1992–2009 period. Focusing on the most important risk in banking, credit risk, we find that allowing for geographical diversification could reduce banks’ credit risk by 1.1% on average, with risk reduction ranging from negligible up to 8%.

Internal capital markets and lending by multinational bank subsidiaries

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2010 19(1), 1-25
We use new panel data on the intra-group ownership structure and the balance sheets of 45 of the largest multinational bank holdings to analyze what determines the credit growth of their subsidiaries. We find evidence for the existence of internal capital markets through which multinational banks manage the credit growth of their subsidiaries. Multinational bank subsidiaries with financially strong parent banks are able to expand their lending faster. As a result of parental support, foreign bank subsidiaries also do not need to rein in their credit supply during a financial crisis, while domestic banks need to do so.

Do financial conglomerates create or destroy value? Evidence for the EU

Journal of Banking & Finance 2009 33(12), 2312-2321
There is an ongoing debate about whether firm focus creates or destroys shareholder value. Earlier literature has shown significant diversification discounts: firms that engage in multiple activities are valued lower. Various factors are important in determining the size of the discount, for example cross-subsidization and agency problems. The existing literature, however, generally focuses on non-financial firms or on banks combining investment and commercial banking. Our paper focuses specifically on the valuation of bank-insurance conglomerates. We find no universal diversification discount but significant variability. The discount is explained by the size (increasing), the familiarity with the conglomerate business model (decreasing) and the risk profile (decreasing). Our results are robust to the historical origin, the merger record and the age of the conglomerate, as well as peer group specification and outlier elimination.

An empirical assessment of reinsurance risk

Journal of Financial Stability 2011 7(4), 191-203
We analyse the effect of failing reinsurance cover on the stability of Dutch insurers. As insurers often reinsure themselves with other (re)insurers, a firm's loss could spread contagiously through the sector. Using a unique and confidential data set on reinsurance exposures, we gain insight into the reinsurance market structure and perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. Considering entities on a standalone basis, we find no evidence of systemic risk in the Netherlands, even if multiple reinsurance companies fail simultaneously. At group level our analysis points to the contagion risk of in-house reinsurance structures, given that such in-house reinsurance parties are generally not higher capitalised than other group members.

Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(7), 1927-1952
We examine whether foreign and domestic banks in Central and Eastern Europe react differently to business cycles and banking crises. Our panel dataset comprises data of more than 250 banks for the period 1993–2000, with information on bank ownership and mode of entry. During crisis periods domestic banks contracted their credit base, whereas greenfield foreign banks did not. Also, home country conditions matter for foreign bank growth, as there is a significant negative relationship between home country economic growth and host country credit by greenfields. Finally, greenfield foreign banks’ credit growth is influenced by the health of the parent bank.

Finding the core: Network structure in interbank markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 49, 27-40
This paper investigates the network structure of interbank markets. Using a dataset of interbank exposures in the Netherlands, we corroborate the recent hypothesis that the core periphery model is a ‘stylised fact’ of interbank markets. We find a core of highly connected banks intermediating between periphery banks and pay particular attention to model selection. Our analysis can help improve systemic risk assessments, especially as more granular data is becoming available.

Pension fund equity performance: Patience, activity or both?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 115, 105812 open access
We study how pension fund (out)performance is influenced by a) a pension fund’s activity, i.e., how much the pension fund deviates in its stock allocation from typical pension fund behavior, and b) whether the pension fund is patient in exploiting investment opportunities (measured by stock holding duration). We do not find that high activity or higher holding duration, separately, lead to higher risk adjusted returns on average. However, if high activity is paired with long-term holdings, the pension fund’s performance increases. Quantitatively, if an active pension fund increases its duration by one standard deviation, annual returns tend to increase by 2.3%. Our findings indicate that some pension funds are patient enough to exploit long-term investment opportunities.

The missing links: A global study on uncovering financial network structures from partial data

Journal of Financial Stability 2018 35, 107-119 open access
Capturing financial network linkages and contagion in stress test models are important goals for banking supervisors and central banks responsible for micro- and macroprudential policy. However, granular data on financial networks is often lacking, and instead the networks must be reconstructed from partial data. In this paper, we conduct a horse race of network reconstruction methods using network data obtained from 25 different markets spanning 13 jurisdictions. Our contribution is two-fold: first, we collate and analyze data on a wide range of financial networks. And second, we rank the methods in terms of their ability to reconstruct the structures of links and exposures in networks.