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The Babies of Mortgage Market Deregulation

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(2), 907-948
This paper documents that mortgage market deregulation helps mitigate the risk of population aging by affecting a foundational family-level decision: the choice to have children. Using a U.S. federal regulator ruling, I show that young households fully exposed to mortgage market deregulation increase their probability of purchasing a home and having a child by 6 percentage points. Supplemental tests reject alternative hypotheses based on income or housing wealth growth and, instead, suggest that access to space is the relevant economic mechanism. Collectively, the evidence indicates that increased access to mortgage credit affects the total number of children in the economy.

No experience necessary: the peer effects of intended entrepreneurs

Review of Finance 2024 28(4), 1311-1344
Under a randomized setting, this article finds workers with entrepreneurial ambitions—intended entrepreneurs—are (1) far more common than workers with past entrepreneurial experience and (2) increase the rate of entrepreneurship among their peers. Peer effects are persistent, stronger for tighter networks, and extend to the decision to join a startup. As intended peers explain half of the variation in entrepreneurship rates in our sample, our results demonstrate that intended entrepreneurs, even those that never personally start a firm, represent a vital component of the entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Competing for Talent: Firms, Managers, and Social Networks

Review of Financial Studies 2021 35(1), 207-253
Do social networks help firms recruit talented managers? In our setting, firms are randomly connected to prospective young managers through former employees. Under a discrete choice model, we find networks increase the likelihood firms hire high-ability managers, while having no effect on the hiring rate of low-ability managers. Effects are greatest for nonlocal firms, strong ties, and peers living in the same neighborhood. Survey evidence suggests social networks promote recruitment by providing information about firm fundamentals to potential applicants. Our results help rationalize why the majority of managers hold prior connections to the firm.

Forced Entrepreneurs

Journal of Finance 2022 77(1), 49-83
Conventional wisdom suggests that labor market distress drives workers into temporary self‐employment, lowering entrepreneurial quality. Analyzing employment histories for 640,000 U.S. workers, we document that graduating college during a period of high unemployment does increase entry to entrepreneurship. However, compared to voluntary entrepreneurs, firms founded by forced entrepreneurs are more likely to survive, innovate, and receive venture backing. Explaining these results, we confirm that labor shocks disproportionately impact high earners, with these workers starting more successful firms. Overall, we document untapped entrepreneurial potential across the top of the income distribution and the role of recessions in reversing this missing entrepreneurship.

Information Dispersion across Employees and Stock Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(10), 4785-4831 open access
Rank-and-file employees are becoming increasingly critical for many firms, yet we know little about how their employment dynamics matter for stock prices. We analyze new data from the individual CV’s of public company employees and find that rank-and-file labor flows can be used to predict abnormal stock returns. Accounting data and survey evidence indicate that workers’ labor market decisions reflect information about future corporate earnings. Investors, however, do not appear to fully incorporate this information into their earnings expectations. The findings support the hypothesis that rank-and-file employees’ entry and exit decisions reveal valuable insights into their employers’ future stock performance.