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Lender Liability and Large Investors

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2001 10(2), 108-137
We explore the optimal financial contract for a large investor with potential control over a firm's investment decisions. An optimal menu of claims resembles a U.S. version of lender liability doctrine—equitable subordination. This doctrine permits the court to subordinate a controlling investor's claim in bankruptcy, but only under well-specified conditions. It allows a firm to strike an efficient balance between: (i) inducing the large investor to monitor, and (ii) limiting the influence costs that arise when claimants can challenge existing contracts. We provide a partial rationale for a financial system in which powerful creditors do not hold blended debt and equity claims. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G33, K22.

Earnings Instability and Earnings Inequality of Males in the United States: 1967–1991

Journal of Labor Economics 2001 19(4), 799-836
Although much research has focused on recent increases in annual earnings inequality in the United States, the increases could have come from either of two sources: the distribution of lifetime earnings could have become more unequal or the receipt of lifetime earnings could have become more unstable. Based on an analysis of the 1968–92 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that lifetime earnings inequality increased during the early 1980s and that earnings instability increased during the 1970s. We also examine how these trends are related to changes in the distribution of wages and hours and the returns to education.

The Biological Basis of Economic Behavior

Journal of Economic Literature 2001 39(1), 11-33
This paper first considers the implications of biological evolution for economic preferences. It analyzes why utility functions evolved, considers evidence that utility is both hedonic and adaptive, and suggests why such adaptation might have evolved. Time preference and attitudes to risk are treated—in particular, whether the former is exponential and the latter are selfish. Arguments for another form of interdependence—a concern with status—are treated. The paper then considers the evolution of rationality. One hypothesis examined is that human intelligence and longevity were forged by hunter-gatherer economies; another is that intelligence was spurred by competitive social interactions.

Interindustry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor

Journal of Labor Economics 2001 19(1), 94-135
We investigate whether a market‐clearing model is consistent with industry employment and wage patterns related to the cyclical upgrading of labor. We demonstrate that Roy's (1951) market‐clearing model of self‐selection would account for cyclical upgrading if industries were characterized by positive selection. Wage comparisons of industry movers and stayers in panel data do reveal widespread positive selection. Also consistent with the Roy model, composition‐corrected industry wages are more cyclical in high‐wage cyclical industries. The Roy model does fail to explain predictable patterns in the wage changes of industry movers, so we consider several market‐clearing and queuing extensions.

A Theory of Compensation and Personnel Policy in Hierarchical Organizations with Application to the United States Military

Journal of Labor Economics 2001 19(3), 523-562
A large literature attempts to explain compensation and personnel policies in large organizations. Three features of the U.S. military system—flat rank spreads in pay, a relatively generous pension, and heavy reliance on up‐or‐out promotions—are at variance with common practices in large civilian organizations. This article develops a model of individual decision making in a large, hierarchical organization and uses the model to explain these apparent puzzles. The lack of lateral entry and heterogeneity in entrants’ abilities and preferences for military service play key roles in the observed policies.

Performance, Promotion, and the Peter Principle

Review of Economic Studies 2001 68(1), 45-66
This paper considers why organizations use promotions, rather than just monetary bonuses, to motivate employees even though this may conflict with efficient assignment of employees to jobs. When performance is unverifiable, use of promotion reduces the incentive for managers to be affected by influence activities that would blunt the effectiveness of monetary bonuses. When employees are risk neutral, use of promotion for incentives need not distort assignments. When they are risk averse, it may—sufficient conditions for this are given. The distortion may be either to promote more employees than is efficient (the Peter Principle effect) or fewer. “Promotions serve two roles in an organization. First, they help assign people to the roles where they can best contribute to the organization's performance. Second, promotions serve as incentives and rewards.” (Milgrom and Roberts (1992, p. 364)) “Promotions are used as the primary incentive device in most organizations, including corporations, partnerships, and universities … This … is puzzling to us because promotion-based incentive schemes have many disadvantages and few advantages relative to bonus-based incentive schemes.” (Baker, Jensen and Murphy (1988, p. 600))

Stock option plans for non-executive employees

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 61(2), 253-287 open access
We examine determinants of non-executive employee stock option holdings, grants, and exercises for 756 firms during 1994–1997. We find that firms use greater stock option compensation when facing capital requirements and financing constraints. Our results are also consistent with firms using options to attract and retain certain types of employees as well as to create incentives to increase firm value. After controlling for economic determinants and stock returns, option exercises are greater (less) when the firm's stock price hits 52-week highs (lows), which confirms in a broad sample the psychological bias documented by Heath et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1999) 601–628).

Debt-reducing exchange offers

Journal of Corporate Finance 2001 7(2), 179-207
Announcements of debt-reducing exchange offers are associated with a negative average stock price reaction. We address two questions: Why do firms undertake debt-reducing exchange offers? And, what is the information conveyed by such offers? The answers are interrelated: Debt-reducing exchange offers are undertaken by financially weak firms in an effort to stave off further financial distress and, thereby, preserve value for shareholders. A successfully completed exchange offer significantly reduces the likelihood that a firm will enter Chapter 11. Announcements of debt-reducing exchange offers apparently contain two pieces of information: (1) the firm is financially weaker than would have been apparent from other publicly available information, and (2) management is attempting to preserve value for shareholders.

Repeated Bargaining with Persistent Private Information

Review of Economic Studies 2001 68(4), 719-755
The paper analyses repeated contract negotiations involving the same buyer and seller where the contracts are linked because the buyer has persistent (but not fully permanent) private information. The size of the surplus being divided is specified as a two-state Markov chain with transitions that are synchronized with contract negotiation dates. Equilibrium involves information cycles triggered by the success or failure of aggressive demands made by the seller. Because there is persistence in the Markov chain generating the surplus, a successful demand induces the seller to make another aggressive demand in the next negotiation, since the buyer's acceptance reveals that the current surplus is large. Rejection of an aggressive demand, on the other hand, leads the seller to be pessimistic about the size of the surplus in the next contract, so the seller makes a “soft” offer that is sure to be accepted. Then, after several such offers have been accepted, the seller is optimistic enough to again make an aggressive demand, creating an information cycle. An interesting feature of this cycle is that the soft price is not constant, but declines as the cycle continues, so as to offset the buyer's option value of re-starting the cycle when the current state is bad. An explicit mapping is given for the relationship between the basic parameters and the equilibrium prices and quantities; in particular, there is a closed-form solution for the threshold belief that makes the seller indifferent between hard and soft offers.

Market Efficiency, Bounded Rationality, and Supplemental Business Reporting Disclosures

Journal of Accounting Research 2001 39(2), 243-268
The AICPA Special Committee on Financial Reporting has urged disclosure of relevant forward‐looking information on risks and opportunities to supplement conventional financial statements. We conduct a laboratory market experiment to assess the effects of such disclosures on capital allocation decisions. We develop two sets of competing hypotheses regarding how capital markets react to supplemental disclosures. One set is based on the assumption of semi‐strong market efficiency, while the other posits that the bounded rationality of individual traders leads to inefficient market prices. We find that explicit disclosure of management’s best estimate of an uncertain quantity improves market efficiency, even though this disclosure is redundant with information in financial statements. Second, we find disclosure of an upper bound of management’s estimate has the potential to bias security prices upward, while informationally equivalent disclosure of both upper and lower bounds removes this bias. These results suggest that experimental market reactions to these supplemental disclosures are inconsistent with market efficiency. Supplemental analyses of individuals’ price predictions and trading behavior support our conclusion that inefficiencies are at least partially attributable to individual information processing biases.