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Price and Size Discovery in Financial Markets: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Securities Market

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2019 9(2), 256-295 open access
We study the workup protocol, an important size discovery mechanism in the U.S. Treasury market. We find that workup order flow shocks explain 6%–8% of the variation of returns on benchmark notes and, across maturities, 10% of the variation of the yield curve level factor. Information related to proprietary client order flow is more likely to show up in workup trades, whereas information derived from public announcements tends to come through preworkup trades. Our findings highlight how the nature of information affects the trade-off between speed and execution price when informed traders choose between the lit and workup channels. Received May 3, 2017; Editorial decision August 1, 2018 by Editor Thierry Foucault. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. Internet Appendix tables are numbered with “IA” prefix.

How Should a Firm Go Public? A Dynamic Model of the Choice between Fixed-Price Offerings and Auctions in IPOs and Privatizations*

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2019 8(1), 42-96
We analyze the choice between fixed-price offerings and auctions in IPOs and privatizations. We model a firm going public by selling equity in the IPO market. Firm insiders have private information about intrinsic firm value, but outsiders can produce information about this value before bidding for shares. Inducing information production is beneficial for higher intrinsic value firms, because this information, reflected in secondary market prices, yields higher equity prices. We show that auctions and fixed-price offerings have different properties for inducing information production, solve for the equilibrium IPO mechanisms for firms with different characteristics, and explain the “IPO auction” puzzle. Received July 3, 2012; Editorial decision July 14, 2018 by Editor Paolo Fulghieri

Hedonic-Based Labor Supply Substitution and the Ripple Effect of Minimum Wages

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(3), 905-947
This paper analyzes a new explanation of the “ripple effect” of minimum wages based on how minimum wages affect hedonic compensation. Minimum wage hikes lower compensating differentials at low-skill undesirable jobs because they raise wages at the most desirable low-skill job, the minimum wage job. This change in hedonic compensation may cause some individuals to optimally leave low-wage undesirable jobs and seek more desirable employment. If labor supply falls at low-wage undesirable jobs, employers would raise wages, consistent with the ripple effect. Empirically, I provide evidence that hedonic-based labor supply substitution is taking place and contributing to the ripple effect.

Why do accruals predict earnings?

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 67(2-3), 336-356
Higher accruals are associated with lower subsequent earnings. We show this phenomenon can be explained by the way sales, profits, and working capital respond to changes in a firm's product markets. Empirically, high accruals predict high subsequent sales growth but a long-lasting drop in both profits and profitability. Accruals also predict an increase in future competition, suggesting that accruals are correlated with abnormally high—and, in equilibrium, transitory—true profitability that attracts new entrants to the industry. Overall, the predictive power of accruals is better explained by product-market effects than by measurement error in accruals or diminishing returns from investment.

Money and the Measurement of Total Factor Productivity

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 42, 84-89 open access
Firms have greatly increased their cash holdings since the mid-1990s. These holdings have an opportunity cost; i.e., allocating firm financial capital into monetary deposits means that investment in real assets is reduced. Traditional measures of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) do not take into account these holdings of monetary assets. Given the recent large increases in these holdings in the U.S. and other advanced economies, it is expected that adding these monetary assets to the list of traditional sources of capital services will reduce the TFP of the business sector. We measure this effect for the U.S. corporate and non-corporate business sectors.

The impact of credit ratings on corporate behavior: Evidence from Moody's adjustments

Journal of Corporate Finance 2019 58, 567-582
Moody's adjusts a firm's reported leverage across several dimensions to determine credit ratings. I find that changes to this adjustment methodology affect firm capital structure and investment decisions. In particular, in 2006, Moody's made several changes to its adjustment methodologies, which are arguably exogenous to changes in firm fundamentals. I show these changes significantly affect adjustments for firms in this year. I then show that these changes to adjustments in 2006 affect capital structure and investment decisions in 2007, especially for those firms with greatest exposure to the methodology changes. These results show that rating agencies have the power to affect corporate decisions.

How Skills and Parental Valuation of Education Influence Human Capital Acquisition and Early Labor Market Return to Human Capital in Canada

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S2), S735-S778 open access
Using the Youth in Transition Survey, we estimate a Roy model with a three-dimensional latent factor structure to consider how parental valuation of education, cognitive skills, and noncognitive skills influence endogenous schooling decisions and subsequent labor market outcomes. We find that the effect of cognitive skills on adult incomes arises by increasing the likelihood of obtaining further education. Furthermore, we find that both noncognitive skills and parental valuation for education play a larger role in determining income at age 25 than cognitive skills. Last, our analysis uncovers striking differences between men and women in several of the estimated relationships.

LTV policy as a macroprudential tool and its effects on residential mortgage loans

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2019 37, 89-103
Since the early 2000s, macroprudential policy has increasingly become part of the regulatory and supervisory framework. Likewise, the housing market has been at the center of the debate on systemic financial risk prevention. Among macroprudential tools, the purpose of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is to constrain mortgage loan creation. This paper is unique in that it analyzes the effectiveness of LTV on mortgage lending moderation using a large sample of more than 4000 banks from 46 countries. The analysis suggests mortgage loans have been successfully curbed in countries with a LTV policy. Size and non-performing loans are the two key characteristics to the effectiveness of LTV. When nonlinearities are considered, the average effect of LTV can be very large; however, it becomes much less effective with large banks and banks with bad loans. Our results suggest the inclusion of other macroprudential tools may have complementary effects to LTV, and for large size banks in particular.

Minimum payments and debt paydown in consumer credit cards

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 131(3), 528-548
Using a data set covering one quarter of the U.S. general-purpose credit card market, we document that 29% of accounts regularly make payments at or near the minimum payment. To explain the prevalence of low payment amounts, we exploit changes in issuers’ minimum payment formulas to quantify the explanatory power of two potential theories: liquidity constraints and anchoring. At least 22% of near-minimum payers (and 9% of all accounts) respond to the formula changes in a manner consistent with anchoring as opposed to liquidity constraints alone. Our results show that anchoring to a salient contractual term has a significant impact on household repayment decisions.