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Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical Record

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1992 107(4), 1393-1419
We use trends in self-reported disability to gauge the impact of the growth of disability transfer programs on the labor force attachment of older working-aged men. Our tabulations suggest that between 1949 and 1987, about half of the 4.9 percentage point drop in the labor force participation of men aged 45–54 and between one quarter and one third of the 19.9 point drop among men aged 55–64 represented a movement of men out of the labor force and onto the rolls of transfer programs targeted at the disabled. Since the expansion of transfer programs represents only one of the forces behind this movement, these figures represent upper bounds on the impact of such programs on work force attachment.

What Went Wrong? The Erosion of Relative Earnings and Employment Among Young Black Men in the 1980s

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1992 107(1), 201-232 open access
This paper shows a widening in black-white earnings and employment gaps among young men from the mid-1970s through the 1980s. Earnings gaps increased most among college graduates and in the Midwest, while gaps in employment-population rates grew most among dropouts. We attribute the differential widening to shifts in demand for subgroups due to shifting industry and regional employment, the falling real minimum wage and deunionization, the growing supply of black to white workers that was marked among college graduates, and to increased crime among dropouts. The different factors affecting subgroups highlight the economic diversity of black Americans.

Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U. S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(2), 367-397 open access
This paper investigates the shift in demand away from unskilled and toward skilled labor in U. S. manufacturing over the 1980s. Production labor-saving technological change is the chief explanation for this shift. That conclusion is based on three facts: (1) the shift is due mostly to increased use of skilled workers within the 450 industries in U. S. manufacturing rather than to a reallocation of employment between industries, as would be implied by a shift in product demand due to trade or to a defense buildup; (2) trade- and defense-demand are associated with only small employment reallocation effects; (3) increased use of nonproduction workers is strongly correlated with investment in computers and in R&D.