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Social Media and Financial News Manipulation

Review of Finance 2023 27(4), 1229-1268 open access
We examine an undercover Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation into the manipulation of financial news on social media. While fraudulent news had a direct positive impact on retail trading and prices, revelation of the fraud by the SEC announcement resulted in significantly lower retail trading volume on all news, including legitimate news, on these platforms. For small firms, volume declined by 23.5% and price volatility dropped by 1.3%. We find evidence consistent with concerns of fraud causing the decline in trading activity and price volatility, which we interpret through the lens of social capital, and attempt to rule out alternative explanations. The results highlight the indirect consequences of fraud and its spillover effects that reduce the social network’s impact on information dissemination, especially for small, opaque firms.

Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price

Journal of Finance 2023 78(1), 301-345 open access
Deviations from the law of one price between futures and spot prices—the futures‐cash basis—capture information about liquidity demand for equity market exposure in global markets. We show that the basis comoves with dealer and investor futures positions, is contemporaneously positively correlated with futures and spot market returns, and negatively predicts futures and spot returns. These findings are consistent with the futures‐cash basis reflecting liquidity demand that is common to futures and cash equity markets. We find persistent supply‐demand imbalances for equity index exposure reflected in the basis, giving rise to an annual premium of 5% to 6%.