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Capital Structure Priority Effects in Durations, Stock-Bond Comovements, and Factor Pricing Models

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2022 12(3), 706-753
We show theoretically and empirically that the durations of corporate securities are monotonically related to their capital structure priority, with equity often having a negative duration. The magnitude of this effect increases with firm leverage. We use these insights to challenge existing results on stock-bond comovements and factor pricing. For example, though overlooked, higher leverage and lower priority reduce the correlation between corporate security and government bond returns, and these variables explain time-series and cross-sectional variation in correlations; traditional market model regressions significantly understate corporate bond betas; and regressions on standard term and default factors dramatically overstate interest rate and default risk.

Sitting bucks: Stale pricing in fixed income funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 145(2), 296-317
We find evidence of widespread stale pricing in bond mutual funds and the resulting risks of dilution and fragility. A principal driver of this phenomenon is the high illiquidity of funds’ holdings, which makes accurate pricing difficult and provides funds with greater discretion over valuation. Consequently, net asset values (NAVs) are extremely stale and fund returns are predictable over several days and weeks, particularly during market crises. Opportunistic traders withdraw capital from overvalued funds, exacerbating the risk of fund runs, while buy-and-hold investors face annual dilution of around $1.2 billion. Our results highlight adverse consequences of insufficient fair valuation practices that remain pervasive even after corrective regulations that followed the 2003 market-timing scandal.