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Concealing and confounding adverse signals: insider wealth-maximizing behavior in the IPO process

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 67(1), 149-172
We study a known negative signal, the sale of insider shares in an IPO and find that insiders adopt two concealment strategies consistent with wealth-maximizing behavior. First, insiders underreport the number of personally owned shares in the prominent original prospectus and use an obscure amendment to communicate the true higher level of shares to be offered. Second, when insiders increase shares in a later amendment, they tend to either increase secondary shares disproportional to primary share increases, or to reduce primary shares to wholly or partly conceal the increase in secondary shares offered. Insiders confound the negative secondary share signal by simultaneously sending a positive lockup signal.

Lockups Revisited

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2005 40(3), 519-530
Lockups are agreements made by insiders of stock-issuing firms to abstain from selling shares for a specified period of time after the issue. Brav and Gompers (2003) suggest that lockups are a bonding solution to a moral hazard problem and not a signaling solution to an adverse selection problem. We challenge this conclusion theoretically and empirically. In our model, insiders of good firms signal by putting and keeping (locking up) their money where their mouths are. Our model yields two comparative statics: lockups should be shorter when a firm is i) more transparent and/or ii) more risky. Using a sample of 4,013 initial public offerings and 3,279 seasoned equity offerings between 1988 and 1999, we find empirical support for our theoretical predictions.

The Desire to Acquire and IPO Long-Run Underperformance

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2012 47(3), 493-510
We analyze 3,547 initial public offerings (IPOs) from 1985 through 2003 to determine the impact of acquisition activity on long-run stock performance. The results show that IPOs that acquire within a year of going public significantly underperform for 1- through 5-year holding periods following the 1st year, whereas nonacquiring IPOs do not significantly underperform over these time frames. For example, the mean 3-year style-adjusted abnormal return is – 15.6% for acquirers and 5.9% for nonacquirers. Our cross-sectional and calendar-time results suggest that the acquisition activity of newly public firms plays an important and previously unrecognized role in the long-run underperformance of IPOs.

Initial Public Offerings: An Analysis of Theory and Practice

Journal of Finance 2006 61(1), 399-436
We survey 336 chief financial officers (CFOs) to compare practice to theory in the areas of initial public offering (IPO) motivation, timing, underwriter selection, underpricing, signaling, and the decision to remain private. We find the primary motivation for going public is to facilitate acquisitions. CFOs base IPO timing on overall market conditions, are well informed regarding expected underpricing, and feel underpricing compensates investors for taking risk. The most important positive signal is past historical earnings, followed by underwriter certification. CFOs have divergent opinions about the IPO process depending on firm‐specific characteristics. Finally, we find the main reason for remaining private is to preserve decision‐making control and ownership.

Do secondary shares in the IPO process have a negative effect on aftermarket performance?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(9), 2612-2631
We revisit and extend the topic of secondary share sales and revisions in IPOs. First we test to determine if secondary share sales constitute a negative signal that is captured in aftermarket performance. We find secondary share sales in general are not correlated with poorer initial or long-run performance, but selling by officers and directors is associated with poorer long-run returns. Second, we examine if secondary share revisions (1) reflect selling shareholders’ attempts to conceal private information or (2) are contingent upon whether a firm can reach its goal of raising sufficient capital. We find empirical support for a capital goal, but not for concealment.