The neoclassical model of trade predicts that international specialization will be jointly determined by cross-country differences in relative factor endowments and technology levels. This paper specifies an empirical model of specialization consistent with the neoclassical explanation. In the model, a sector's share of GDP depends on relative factor supplies and relative technology differences, and the estimated parameters of the model have a clear connection to theoretical parameters. The model is estimated with panel data on manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries. Relative technology levels and factor supplies are both found to be important determinants of specialization.

This paper develops a model of trade in differentiated intermediate goods and shows how the structure of the importing country's production will influence gross bilateral import volumes. A regression equation directly implied by the model is estimated using disaggregated bilateral trade data for the OECD countries in 1985. The data reject the model. A more general model suggested by the theory establishes strong links between a country's factor endowments and its gross trade volume. This model is dominated statistically by a fixed effects model and does not substantially alter the conclusions of earlier empirical studies about openness to trade in manufactured goods. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.

This paper offers a theoretical explanation of why previous attempts to statistically explain intraindustry trade have been unsuccessful and proposes an econometric approach that tests the implications of the monopolistic competition model for the volume of trade. Using disaggregated data on 1983 manufacturing trade within the OECD, the paper finds strong evidence that bilateral imports depend systematically on the exporting country's output and somewhat weaker evidence that the volume of trade is higher in sectors with larger scale economies. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Transport time increases with distance traveled, and time is valuable. We show the implications of these facts for global specialization and trade: products where timely delivery is important will be produced near the source of final demand, where wages will be higher as a result. In the model, timely delivery is important because it allows retailers to respond to final demand fluctuations without holding costly inventories, and timely delivery is possible only from nearby locations. Using a unique dataset that allows us to measure the retail demand for timely delivery, we show that the sources of U.S. apparel imports have shifted in the way predicted by the model, with products for which timeliness matters increasingly imported from nearby countries.

Quota restrictions on United States imports of apparel and textiles under the multifiber arrangement (MFA) ended abruptly in January 2005. This change in policy was large, predetermined, and fully anticipated, making it an ideal natural experiment for testing the theory of trade policy. Prices of quota-constrained categories from China fell by 38% in 2005, with smaller declines from other exporters. Prices in unconstrained categories from all countries changed little. We also find substantial quality downgrading in imports from China in previously constrained categories. The annual cost of the MFAto U.S. consumers was $63 per household.