James R. Follain, Jr., A Study of the Demand for Housing by Low Versus High Income Households, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 14, No. 4, Proceedings of 14th Annual Conference of the Western Finance Association, June 21-23, 1979 (Nov., 1979), pp. 769-782

The Standard Fixed Payment Mortgage (SFPM) has been the dominant mortgage instrument in the United States for the last 50 years, and for much of this period it has performed well. However, during periods of high and volatile rates of inflation, the SFPM suffers from severe weaknesses. Foremost among these problems, from the standpoint of the borrower, is the tilt in the stream of real mortgage payments toward the initial years of the mortgage. For consumers unconstrained by capital market imperfections, this tilt is unimportant. However, a consumer is typically unable to borrow against expected higher future income, or against the nominal capital gains that accrue to the owner of a house over the life of the mortgage. In addition, common practices of mortgage lenders often limit mortgage payments to some fraction of income at the time of purchase. Together, these liquidity constraints create a mismatch between the time sequence of mortgage payments and income, a mismatch that reduces the number of borrowers who qualify for financing and that limits the value of the house purchased by those who do obtain financing.

This paper estimates an empirical model of the choice between adjustable- and fixe d-rate mortgages using a large national database compiled by the Nat ional Association of Realtors. The explanatory variables in the probi t choice equation include borrower characteristics, regional dummies, the FRM rate, and the FRM-ARM rate differential. Since the intrerest rate on the mortgage not chosen is unobserved, this rate must be est imated in a way that eliminates selectivity bias. Simulation of the e stimated choice equation provides insight into the origin of the ARM revolution. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.